Ballin' on a Budget Week 7 Picks
We’re back for Week 7 picks and there’s actually plenty to like, at least on paper. When I sat down and wrote which games I would consider betting this week, I came up with nine. That’s much higher than what I normally come up with. For the sake of the column, I’ve whittled it down to the five I’m most confident in.
Just like last week, we’re gonna put much more money on the highest confidence pick than the others. That’s the only way we’re going to start making considerable money (unless, of course, we run the table and go 5 for 5). For the first time all year, that high confidence is in an over/under.
Vikings -4 at Jets (-110)
The Jets offense looked revived against the Colts last Sunday, but Indy is also the most injured team in football. New York may be a little better than we gave them credit for, but the Vikings are hitting their stride too and their ceiling is much higher than the Jets. Kirk Cousins’ weird dance in the end zone against the Cardinals doesn’t do them any favors in the style points department, but he’s really starting to gain command of that offense.
It looks like Dalvin Cook should finally be back for this game as well. Even if he’s limited, having the two-headed monster of Cook and Latavius Murray should open up Minnesota’s passing game even more. It’s always scary betting a team that’s over a touchdown favorite, but I’m confident enough in the fact the Vikings have now found their groove that I’m comfortable giving those points even on the road. The bet: $3 for total payout of $5.70.
Texans +5 at Jaguars (-105)
Yes, the Jaguars defense is (or maybe “was” is a more accurate term) the best defense in football, but the Texans are red hot. Jacksonville is coming off allowing 37 points to the anemic Cowboys offense. Deshaun Watson and Co. have been close in every game. They’ve lost their three games this season by a combined 15 points. That means even if the Jags get some of their mojo back, Houston should keep things interesting.
It’s hard to say whether or not the Jaguars offense is completely broken, but it’s certainly been hampered without RB Leonard Fournette in the lineup. Houston’s defense is tough as well and in a game that should be low scoring, five points is too much for us to pass up. Texans cover on the road. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.81.
Saints over Ravens (+120)
Here’s an upset pick for you. New Orleans has been bouncing between a 2 and 2.5-point underdog against Baltimore this week. Yes, they are coming off an emotional game in which Drew Brees broke the passing record, so they’re primed for a letdown. However, expect this one to come down to the final possession. The Saints’ high-powered offense against the Ravens’ high-powered defense will create an interesting dynamic.
I could see this one going either way, so I’m going to go where the value lies and that’s with the Saints being +120 straight up to win. As a general rule, whenever a team is +2.5 or lower as an underdog, I will just bet them to win. There isn’t a ton of value in getting those points, because very rarely is a game decided by 1 or 2 points. The bet: $3 for total payout of $6.60.
Panthers-Eagles OVER 45.5 (-110)
The Panthers are coming off a letdown game against the Redskins and the Eagles will have had 11 days to prepare for this matchup. With Carson Wentz starting to look good in this offense again, Philly should be able to hold their own on offense. After a slow start last Sunday, Cam Newton and his offensive weapons should be able to put up some points as well. Greg Olsen being in the lineup makes a huge difference.
This game will be dictated by tempo and early field position, so if we can get some points on the board early, we should be in good shape. Worst-case scenario for us would be a field position battle in the first half. We need a close shootout, so that both teams are still taking shots downfield late into the game. The bet: $2 for total payout of $3.70.
Saints-Ravens UNDER 49.5 (-110)
I LOVE this pick. This is the big one this week. Do you know how many points Baltimore has allowed over their last two games combined? I’ll save you the 10-second Google search: the answer is 12. They’ve given up just 12 points over the last two games. Granted, that was against the Browns and Titans and they lost one of those games, but those are still NFL teams they’re shutting down.
Drew Brees and New Orleans will be a different beast, but do we expect this game to finish 30-20? Even then, that would hit the over by just half a point. Who knows, it could develop into a shootout, but I certainly don’t see it. As long as Baltimore can avoid giving up the big play that New Orleans is known for, this under should be safe. Especially with the Ravens having to settle for so many field goals this season (eight combined between Weeks 4 & 5), the under should be safe. The bet: $8 for total payout of $15.20.
BONUS PICKS: For the first time in weeks, I’m going to give you some bonus picks, because there’s a lot to love this Sunday. We aren’t going to go one-by-one and explain them all, but there are a handful of promising spreads and picks this week. The picks: Bucs -3 vs. Browns, Bills +7.5 vs. Colts, Titans-Chargers OVER 45, Vikings-Jets UNDER 47.
As always, we will calculate our pipe dream of going 5 for 5 this week, by letting you know the parlay payout for our main bets this week. If all five of them hit, we’d be in the green to the tune of $597.52. Let’s hope for that, but if all else fails, we really need that Saints-Ravens UNDER to hit. Happy betting and we’ll check back in early next week.