Ballin' on a Budget Week 9 Results
Maybe I should stick to straight game picks and ditch the over/unders. We went 3-2 again this week, getting all three game picks right, including two road underdogs. However, we went 0-2 on over/unders and neither of them were particularly close. Luckily, the payouts on those road dog picks are higher, so we continue to build our stash. Certainly, 3-2 every week ain’t bad, but we’re still waiting for that big payout on a 5-0 week.
LOSS: Dolphins-Jets OVER 45 points (-110): Dolphins 13, Jets 6.
As soon as I read on Sunday morning about these teams being worried about field conditions in Miami, I knew we were in trouble. Poor field conditions never make scoring easier. Sam Darnold threw four interceptions, stopping multiple Jets drives in their tracks. A Dolphins defense that just allowed 42 points to the Texans magically showed up and balled out.
Field goals killed us as they always do with overs, but even if those field goals turned into touchdowns, we would likely still be doomed. There’s no way around it, this one wasn’t even close and that was due to a combination of factors. The win: $0.
LOSS: Saints-Rams UNDER 60 points (-110): Saints 45, Rams 35.
Ouch. Let’s just acknowledge that 60 points is an insane over/under number in NFL betting and the Saints and Rams still shattered it. Despite each team having a high-powered offense, I thought the solid rush defenses for each would limit scoring. Instead, what I said I feared in last week’s column came true: this game became a shootout.
L.A. was down big early and stormed back to tie it before New Orleans scored the last 10 points of the game to seal the win. This was one of, if not the best game of the year so far, it’s just a shame it had to come at our expense. The win: $0.
WIN: Steelers -3 vs. Ravens (-120): Steelers 23, Ravens 16.
Even without Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh is starting to hit its stride. Despite it being a one-score game in the end, the Steelers really controlled this game from the start. The defense is showing signs of life and this is not a team you want to mess with right now. Meanwhile, the Ravens are in a free fall, now losers of three straight games.
We knew getting a line that was under a field goal gave us a chance to win and Pittsburgh went one step further and covered for us. It was just the first of many solid picks we had on point spread and money line this week. The win: $5.50.
WIN: Falcons over Redskins (+110): Falcons 38, Redskins 14.
I was very high on Atlanta going into this match up, but even I did not foresee this flat-out domination by the Falcons. They bullied Washington from the opening kick and did whatever they wanted on offense. We picked this “upset” based on the Falcons having far more talent. That doesn’t always equal a win, but it sure did today.
When the lines came out at the beginning of the week, this one immediately stuck out as one to put some money down on. I’m glad we were wise enough to do it and reap the benefits. Total win: $10.50.
WIN: Texans over Broncos (+120): Texans 19, Broncos 17.
Just barely, Houston was able to hold off Denver for its fifth straight win and it won us some money in the process. The Texans are really starting to roll with the defense and offense seemingly each making strides each week. What should be scary to opposing teams is the fact this Texans team can win different styles of games: low-scoring affairs and shootouts.
Sunday afternoon was the former and Houston showed enough grit to pull it out in a very tough road environment. The Texans are starting to emerge as the clear best team in the AFC South and if they win a couple more, they might emerge as one of the best teams in the entire AFC. I wouldn’t bet against the Steelers, Patriots, or Chiefs right now, but we’re not talking about season-long bets here. All we’re talking about is our piggy bank continuing to grow week by week. Total win: $11.
PIGGY BANK: $201.88 (12.2% return on investment)
PICK PERCENTAGE: 59.5% (25-17-3)