NFL Week 9: In ‘Lookahead Lines,’ Intrigue As Broncos Trade WR Thomas to Opponent

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the NFL Week 9 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated are based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 9 Lines, Before And After: Texans-Broncos, Rams-Saints in NFC Heavyweight Clash; FitzMagic Getting 7 At Carolina?

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-1)

The Texans-Broncos matchup has the most notable line movement of the week. The SuperBook made the Texans a 1.5-point road favorite last week in its early lines. Houston then destroyed the Dolphins on national TV Thursday night, 42-23. Meanwhile, the Broncos fell (and covered) in Kansas City, 30-23.

The Texans have won five straight (3-2 ATS), while Denver is 1-5 in its last six games (3-3 ATS). The SuperBook opened this number as a pick ’em on Sunday night and within a couple hours it moved to the Broncos -2.5. The Texans did suffer a big loss against Miami when receiver Will Fuller tore his ACL. Deshaun Watson’s numbers are much better with Fuller in the lineup. But is Fuller worth four points? Traditionally only QBs cause moves like that.

The public has come out ahead the last two weeks and they’re certain to be on the Texans Sunday. The Broncos are 2-2 at home this year and 2-1-1 ATS. 

But then on Tuedsay an hour after the Broncos traded for WR Demaryius Thomas to their opponent this week — the Texans! — the line dropped to Denver -1.5 and to -1 as of Wednesday morning. Don’t be surprised if Houston is a slight favorite by kickoff. The Texans are playing much better over the last month but the value may end up being on Denver if it becomes a home ‘dog.

 

Upcoming Games

Nov 27th, 1:00 PM

Cincinnati -2 -110

Tennessee +2 -110

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Nov 27th, 1:00 PM

Denver -2.5 -110

Carolina +2.5 -110

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Nov 27th, 1:00 PM

Tampa Bay -3 -110

Cleveland +3 -110

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Nov 27th, 1:00 PM

Baltimore -4 -110

Jacksonville +4 -110

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Nov 27th, 1:00 PM

Houston +9.5 -110

Miami -9.5 -110

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Nov 27th, 1:00 PM

Chicago +4 -110

NY Jets -4 -110

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Nov 27th, 1:00 PM

Atlanta +3 -110

Washington -3 -110

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Nov 27th, 4:05 PM

Las Vegas +3 -110

Seattle -3 -110

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Nov 27th, 4:05 PM

LA Chargers -2.5 -110

Arizona +2.5 -110

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Nov 27th, 4:25 PM

New Orleans +8.5 -110

San Francisco -8.5 -110

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Nov 27th, 4:25 PM

LA Rams +10 -110

Kansas City -10 -110

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Nov 27th, 8:20 PM

Green Bay +6 -110

Philadelphia -6 -110

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Nov 28th, 8:15 PM

Pittsburgh +3 -110

Indianapolis -3 -110

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Dec 1st, 8:15 PM

Buffalo -5 -110

New England +5 -110

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Dec 4th, 1:00 PM

Green Bay -2.5 -110

Chicago +2.5 -110

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Dec 4th, 1:00 PM

Cleveland -4.5 -110

Houston +4.5 -110

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Dec 4th, 1:00 PM

NY Jets +2.5 -110

Minnesota -2.5 -110

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Dec 4th, 1:00 PM

Pittsburgh +1 -110

Atlanta -1 -110

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Dec 4th, 1:00 PM

Denver +6.5 -110

Baltimore -6.5 -110

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Dec 4th, 1:00 PM

Jacksonville +1 -110

Detroit -1 -110

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Dec 4th, 1:00 PM

Washington -1 -110

NY Giants +1 -110

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Dec 4th, 1:00 PM

Tennessee +7 -110

Philadelphia -7 -110

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Dec 4th, 4:05 PM

Seattle -3 -110

LA Rams +3 -110

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Dec 4th, 4:05 PM

Miami +5 -110

San Francisco -5 -110

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Dec 4th, 4:25 PM

LA Chargers -3 -110

Las Vegas +3 -110

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Dec 4th, 4:25 PM

Kansas City -3 -110

Cincinnati +3 -110

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Dec 4th, 8:20 PM

Indianapolis +9.5 -110

Dallas -9.5 -110

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