Ballin' on a Budget Week 11 Picks
We're starting to pick games with some swagger now. Being well in the black is nice, so let's keep the good times rolling. The lines are set pretty well this week, which makes our jobs a little tougher. There aren't a ton of spreads to like, but we picked out the three you should be able to bank on the most. As far as over/unders, we have one over and one under for you.
Panthers -4.5 at Lions (-110)
Carolina has never burned us before, right? Just kidding, we took them +4 against the Steelers in a game they lost 52-21 last week. That was the only pick we got wrong in Week 10. Even though they're on the road, there's plenty of reason to believe they're a prime bounceback candidate, just like another team we'll talk about in a minute.
The Panthers have everything to play for with an NFC Wild Card berth well within their grasp. Detroit, meanwhile, has spiraled into free fall and it seems like head coach Matt Patricia may already have lost that locker room. They waved the white flag the moment they traded Golden Tate and there's no reason to believe they should be competitive. Detroit is 3-6, but two of those wins have come against the Patriots and Packers, so who knows, but the percentages tell us Carolina wins this game handily. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.
Falcons -3 vs. Cowboys (-120)
This is our biggest lock of the week. Atlanta is another prime bounceback candidate after randomly getting blown out by the Browns last week. They're in desperation mode and at home. Yes, the Cowboys' defense presents some issues for the offense, but Dak Prescott simply isn't going to outgun Matt Ryan on his home field. It's not happening.
If the Falcons hope to have any prayer of sneaking into the playoffs, they basically need to win every single one from here on out. Unless Dallas comes out with a crazy effort like they did against the Jaguars several weeks ago, it just doesn't seem plausible for them to grab this road win. If you're going to bank on any one of these picks this week, make it this one. The bet: $8 for total payout of $14.66.
Broncos +7.5 at Chargers (-120)
Even as I'm typing this, I don't feel great about this pick, but the Broncos are a competent enough team to cover a multiple-score spread. Of course, that's what this is. If Denver loses by a touchdown, they cover. The Chargers have been great this season and have flown under the radar, but they generally don't score points in bunches.
Expect the Broncos to hang around at least for a bit and then we can hope they keep the game within a touchdown. It might be wishful thinking, but it's our best bet amongst a group of other less promising spreads this week. The bet: $2 for total payout of $3.67.
Packers-Seahawks OVER 49.5 (-110)
This is a matchup of desperate teams. The Packers are 4-4-1, the Seahawks 4-5. The loser will start to slip out of the playoff picture entirely. Since the game is in Seattle, expect that to level the playing field a bit. These aren't your older brother's Seahawks, whose defense struck fear into their opponents. Green Bay's defense, especially without Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in the secondary is vulnerable as well.
When betting over/unders, you essentially need to guess what the game flow is going to be. This certainly seems like it will be a close game that is relatively high scoring. A 30-20 final score would get us our over and that seems perfectly reasonable for how we expect this game to go. It's not our most confident pick, but it's a pretty decent bet. The bet: $2 for total payout of $3.80.
Titans-Colts UNDER 49 (-110)
This one is dangerous with the Colts' offense able to go off at any time, but hey, if the Titans can hold the Patriots defense at bay, they can do the same with the Colts. It's actually looking more and more like Tennessee has a legit defense, capable of shutting an opponent down. Their offense, while it looked its best all season against New England, is still a work in progress.
All that adds up to a relatively low scoring game, one that keeps us under that 49-point mark. Would anyone be surprised if this game ended 20-17 or somewhere right around there? This over/under seems set really high, so jump on the under in anticipation of a low-scoring game. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.
As always, our pipe dream of 5-0 is on the table. We've had two 4-1 weeks in our last four, so we're getting closer. If we nailed all these picks, our parlay payout would be $467.49. We're going to ride our current hot streak and hope we can get a clean sweep for you this week. Best of luck in Week 11 and we will debrief after the weekend's action is over.