Archived article from 2018 follows below: for current year Week 6 OVER UNDER best bets, click here.
See NFL odds and full matchup stats on every game.
This NFL season, with sports betting expected to be a more common and accepted practice, we’re making a point to look beyond point spreads and analyze often-neglected totals. As part of that approach, we’re offering up our favorite bet over and favorite under each week.
Over and Under Best Bets
Over of the week: Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
Just in their last two games, the Colts have scored 58 points and allowed 75. Meanwhile, the Jets have scored at 34 or more points in two of their first five games and are one week removed from surrendering 31 points to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Don’t be surprised if both teams hit the 30 plateau when they meet Sunday in New Jersey.
The Colts have finally been letting it rip more offensively with Andrew Luck under center, and Luck might have a healthier supporting cast than he did against the New England Patriots in Week 5. It also helps that the New England game took place on a Thursday night, giving that banged-up unit extra time to rest and recover.
The Jets are feeling it offensively after lighting up a good Denver Broncos defense in Week 5, and there’s no reason to expect Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson and Isaiah Crowell to slow down against a Colts D that ranks in the bottom five in terms of points allowed per game.
I’m guessing this total is a lower than the league median because the books don’t totally trust either team and they’re both quite unpredictable, but it’s hard to imagine these offenses failing to combine for 50 or more points.
Predicted score: Colts 30, Jets 27
Under of the week: Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
The Chiefs are due for a dud. It happens to every offense, and there were indications it was happening to red-hot
The Ravens were held to just nine points last week and have held opponents to fewer than 15 in four of their first five outings. Meanwhile, two of Tennessee’s last three affairs have contained 25 or fewer points.
Despite high preseason expectations for both offenses (and a strong start from Joe Flacco and Co.) both teams have experienced more unders than overs this season. And while Vegas has reacted by setting a low total of 41 for their Sunday meeting in Nashville, it’s not low enough.
This game has “16-13” written all over it. Baltimore’s D is stout and consistent, and Flacco and the offense have come back to earth. Tennessee has the league’s top-rated red-zone defense, while the Ravens also rank in the top 10 in that category.
The books have been reluctant to drop totals below 40 during the highest-scoring season in NFL history, but this is one of those situations in which they couldn’t go low enough. This one might fall short of the 30 mark.
Predicted score: Ravens 16, Titans 13
Good luck, we’re all counting on you.
Last week: 2-0
2018 season: 5-5