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This NFL season, with sports betting expected to be a more common and accepted practice, we’re making a point to look beyond point spreads and analyze often-neglected totals. As part of that approach, we’re offering up our favorite bet over and favorite under each week.
OVER UNDER picks for Week 8
Over of the week: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
I think it’s easy to pile on the Bills because they struggled to do much of anything on offense with Derek Anderson at quarterback in Indianapolis. But that was Anderson’s first start in two years and he had been on the roster just a couple weeks. Look for him to be more acclimated in a home game against another vulnerable defense when Buffalo hosts the Patriots in Week 8.
That’s not to say the Bills will put up 30 points, but even double digits should be enough to push this one over. The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in four consecutive games. They’re almost certain to hit the 30 mark against a team that surrendered 37 to the Colts and gave up 31 at home against the Los Angeles Chargers earlier this season.
This one should sail into the 50s.
Predicted score: Patriots 37, Bills 17
Under of the week: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs might be the highest-scoring team in football, but there’s some evidence that bookmakers are overdoing it with their totals. Kansas City games have gone over in only four of the team’s seven games, which has us thinking 55.5 is far too high for a Week 8 divisional matchup with the Broncos.
These teams combined for “only” 50 when they met in Denver a few weeks ago, but the Broncos played extremely well defensively that night and they’ve since gained momentum on that side of the ball (they’ve surrendered just 33 points combined in their last two games).
The Broncos might also be destined to come back to earth offensively after scoring 45 points against a mess of an Arizona Cardinals team in Week 7. That result could be inflating this total, but it was probably an anomaly. Throw in that the Chiefs have started to play decent defense (they’ve given up just 24 points total in their last two home games) and this is a no-brainer.
Predicted score: Chiefs 27, Broncos 17
Good luck, we’re all counting on you.
Last week: 2-0
2018 season: 9-5