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Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. (Season record: 6-3.)

Also check out our NFL “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias.

Back to the college game…

College Football Week 7 Picks: Underdog Duke to Georgia Tech And a Potentially High-Scoring Big Ten Game

Michigan State +13.5 over Penn State
Total: OVER 53

Michigan State has struggled this year and is coming off a disappointing home loss to Northwestern as a 10-point favorite, but two touchdowns in this game seems like a bit much.

The Spartans have thrived in this spot going 7-3 in their last 10 games as an away dog. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings and the OVER is 15-3-1 the last 19 meetings. Both of these teams have played high-scoring games over the last two seasons with the OVER 7-1 in Penn State’s last eight and 6-1 in Michigan’s State’s last seven.

The Spartans rank No. 1 in the nation against the run allowing 33.8 yards per game and 1.38 yards per rush. However, the Spartans give up 305 yards per game (122), so expect a lot of passing by both teams Saturday.

I think we see a spirited effort out of the Spartans this week in a high-scoring game. I’ll take the points and OVER 53 (down from a 56 opener) in a game where I had the total in the low 60s.

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