As we’ve learned in the past, there’s nothing scientific about the NFL draft. Every year, talent evaluators throughout the country -- including me -- whiff on prospects despite spending hundreds of hours on research.
But is it possible to predict the outcome of the draft based on past averages? Today, the National Football Post continues our look at the past 10 drafts and how often each position was selected in the first three rounds. Then we look at the prospects who are likely to be selected at each spot and try to come up with a list of players you can expect to see picked in the first three rounds.
Monday, we examined offensive averages. Today, we check defenses.
Remember, this is not a mock draft or a list of players we think are going to be selected in each round. It’s an application used to take the average number of prospects selected at each position in the first three rounds throughout the past 10 years and apply it to the 2010 NFL Draft.
Note: All averages are rounded up to whole numbers and are based on the past 10 drafts.
Defensive end
Average number of defensive ends selected in the first round: 4
2010 projected first-round defensive ends
Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida
Jared Odrick, Penn State (five-technique)
Everson Griffen, USC
Average number of defensive ends selected in the second round: 3
2010 projected second-round defensive ends
Carlos Dunlap, Florida
Tyson Alualu, California
Alex Carrington, Arkansas State
Average number of defensive ends selected in the third round: 3
2010 projected third-round defensive ends
Greg Hardy, Mississippi
Corey Wootton, Northwestern
Jermaine Cunningham, Florida
Defensive tackle
Average number of defensive tackles selected in the first round: 3
2010 projected first-round defensive tackles
Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
Dan Williams, Tennessee
Average number of defensive tackles selected in the second round: 2
2010 projected second-round defensive tackles
Terrence Cody, Alabama
Brian Price, UCLA
Average number of defensive tackles selected in the third round: 2
2010 projected third-round defensive tackles
Cam Thomas, North Carolina
Torrell Troup, Central Florida
Linebackers
Average number of linebackers selected in the first round: 4
2010 projected first-round linebackers
Rolando McClain, Alabama
Jerry Hughes, TCU
Brandon Graham, Michigan
Sergio Kindle, Texas
Average number of linebackers selected in the second round: 4
2010 projected second-round linebackers
Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri
Daryl Washington, TCU
Ricky Sapp, Clemson
Jason Worilds, Virginia Tech
Average number of linebackers selected in the third round: 5
2010 projected third-round linebackers
Koa Misi, Utah
Eric Norwood, South Carolina
Navorro Bowman, Penn State
Sean Lee, Penn State
Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
Cornerback
Average number of cornerbacks selected in the first round: 4
2010 projected first-round cornerbacks
Joe Haden, Florida
Kyle Wilson, Boise State
Earl Thomas, Texas
Devin McCourty, Rutgers
Average number of cornerbacks selected in the second round: 4
2010 projected second-round cornerbacks
Chris Cook, Virginia
Dominique Franks, Oklahoma
Kareem Jackson, Alabama
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Indiana (Pa.)
Average number of cornerbacks selected in the third round: 4
2010 projected third-round picks
Patrick Robinson, Florida State
Brandon Ghee, Wake Forest
Jerome Murphy, South Florida
Amari Spievey, Iowa
Safety
Average number of safeties selected in first round: 2
2010 projected first-round picks
Eric Berry, Tennessee
Taylor Mays, USC
Average number of safeties selected in the second round: 2
2010 projected second-round picks
Nate Allen, South Florida
Morgan Burnett, Georgia Tech
Average number of safeties selected in the third round: 2
2010 projected third-round picks
Chad Jones, LSU
Major Wright, Florida
Defensive totals
Total defensive prospects selected in first round: 17
Total defensive prospects selected in second round: 15
Total defensive prospects selected in third round: 16