After decades of seeing New England at the top of AFC East odds lists, we commence Year 3 of the Buffalo Bills sitting as prohibitive divisional faves.
The Bills will enter the 2022 season with a chip on their shoulder after a heart-breaking loss in the AFC playoffs. They retooled, added some pieces that should stretch their lead atop the division.
The Jets are still the Jets, while Miami and the aforementioned Pats are interesting value picks if you don’t trust the Bills with your money.
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Buffalo Bills -230
The Bills’ offense played a perfect game in the Divisional Round against the Kansas City Chiefs but ultimately still lost in overtime in one of the best NFL games in recent memory.
The Bills’ offense will look different this season. Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders have moved on, and the Bills replaced them with Jameson Crowder and fifth-round rookie Khalil Shakir. They also signed Rodger Saffold to solidify the offensive line. The most significant difference on offense will be the play-caller, as offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey replaces Brian Daboll as the man calling the shots.
Von Miller and first-round rookie Kiar Elam were the big additions on defense, and both should provide instant production. The Bills struggled to get after the passer in the Divisional Round, so they felt they had to pay the big bucks for Miller.
Miami Dolphins +450
This will be the year the NFL world finds out if Tua Tagavailoa is for real. They added star wide receiver Tyreek Hill in a blockbuster trade, which gives the Dolphins one of the scariest pass-catching duos in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. They also added Cedrick Wilson in free agency, who is a solid third wide receiver.
The Dolphins will now be led by head coach Mike McDaniel, who was the offensive coordinator in San Francisco, and Kyle Shanahan’s protege. How McDaniel runs the offense is one of the most intriguing storylines this season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins added veteran pass rusher Melvin Ingram in free agency. Other than that, the starting defense will look the same as last year. Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer will take the reigns from Brian Flores as the leader of the defense.
New England Patriots +500
Matt Patricia will be the offensive play-caller for the Patriots this season. No, I am not lying. That is actually happening. He will be in charge of getting the most out of Mac Jones in his sophomore season.
The Patriots added DeVante Parker via trade and Tyquan Thornton in the draft to give Jones more weapons. First-round pick Cole Strange will slot in as the starting left guard, with the rest of the offensive line staying intact from last season.
They are running it back on the defensive side of the ball. They will count on guys like Matthew Judon and Lawrence Guy to continue their solid play 2021.
New York Jets +2000
The New York Jets are heavy underdogs to win the AFC East. Robert Saleh will enter his second year as head coach and will look to start getting this rebuild on track.
The Jets’ offense will be led by second-year quarterback Zach Wilson, who struggled mightily in his rookie season. Out of the 31 quarterbacks who took at least 320 snaps last season, Wilson finished dead last in EPA per play and completion percentage.
They drafted Garrett Wilson in the first round, a star at Ohio State who fits in nicely with Elijah Moore and Corey Davis. They also took running back Breece Hall in the second round, who should help solidify the run game.
The defense added a ton of pieces this offseason. They drafted Jermaine Johnson and Sauce Gardner in the first round, who are building blocks for this franchise. Signing Jordan Whitehead will help a secondary that finished 30th in passing yards allowed last season.
AFC East Best Bet
The Bills are the best team in the division, but -230 doesn’t provide bettors any juice. Sprinkling on the Dolphins at +450 has some value, as their offense could be lethal.
**Archived AFC East betting odds feature from Sept. 1, 2021
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of Aug. 28, 2021, check the site for current odds and bonus offers.
Buffalo Bills -150
The Buffalo Bills had 11 players log at least 500 snaps on offense last season. Ten of those players are back. The Bills front office did a great job keeping the core of last year’s team and adding some exciting pieces.Â
Emmanuel Sanders has replaced John Brown, which is an upgrade considering Sanders can play all around the offense. On the defensive side of the ball, development from A.J Epenesa and Ed Oliver could bring this defense to the next level. They also drafted Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham in the first and second rounds of the draft.Â
And let’s not forget they still have Josh Allen. Even if his passing stats take a dip, his size and athleticism will keep him in the upper echelon of quarterbacks in this league. Expect him to continue to play at a high level.Â
Miami Dolphins +330
Tua Tagavailoa completed 64.1 percent of his passes last season in his nine starts. However, he averaged only 6.4 yards per attempt. Out of all eligible quarterbacks, only Ben Roethlisberger had a lower average at 6.3.Â
The Dolphins front office knew this offense needed to get more explosive, and they did just that. They drafted Jaylen Waddle in the first round and signed Will Fuller, who will bring a dynamic to this offense that the Dolphins did not have last season.Â
New England Patriots +360
Bill Belichick spent $159.6 million in the first nine days of free agency this offseason. The Patriots completely overhauled their roster after finishing a disappointing 7-9.Â
The quarterback position is still up in the air. Mac Jones has looked good in training camp, but it looks like Cam Newton will start Week 1. Expect a very similar style offense from last year, emphasizing Newtons running ability.Â
The Patriots added Jalen Mills, Matt Judon, and Kyle Van Noy on the defensive side of the ball. With a healthy Stephon Gilmore, this defense could be back in the top ten.Â
New York Jets +1600
The Jets had the 31st ranked offense last season, according to Football Outsiders. A new era of football begins in New York, as Robert Saleh and Zach Wilson will bring excitement to the Jets organization.Â
The Carl Lawson injury is enormous. They also lost Vinny Curry for the season, completely depleting their pass rush. The Jets arguably have the worst cornerback room in the NFL, which will make it hard to stop the pass, considering they will struggle to get after the quarterback. Jets fans should look ahead to 2022.Â
AFC East Best Bet
The Patriots and Dolphins have juice in the +300 range, but hammering the Bills at -150 is the play. The Bills won’t skip a beat this season, but this division should be much more competitive.Â
AFC East Betting Odds Preview archived article, Sept. 8, 2020 Brad Gagnon
It’s been a while since the odds to win the AFC East started the year without the New England Patriots at the top. But there you have it – the Buffalo Bills at +120. We break down divisional odds in the more-competitive-than-ever AFC East at FanDuel and Draft Kings.
Buffalo Bills (+120)
The Bills haven’t won this division since 1995 but are well-positioned following their first double-digit-win season of the century. Quarterback Josh Allen has sky-high potential and he now has star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to work with. In fact, it’s hard to find a weak spot on this roster. Still, there’s a lot of room for a lot to go wrong and it wouldn’t be shocking if they fell on their face again.
New England Patriots (+130)
The Bills lead the way mainly because the Patriots have been gutted by the departures of Tom Brady, Jamie Collins Sr., Kyle Van Noy and COVID-19 opt-out decisions from Dont’a Hightower and Marcus Cannon. And this is a team that went 4-5 to finish the 2019 campaign. It’s ridiculous that they’re still nearly favored to win the East.
