Aug 28, 2020; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA;  Indianapolis Colts tight end Trey Burton (80) warms up before colts training camp at the Farm Bureau Football Complex. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

AFC South odds

Breaking down odds to win AFC South in 2020

Betting on who will win the AFC South has been a tricky proposition in recent years, when the favored teams flounder and the upstart teams surge. With that in mind, let’s break down divisional odds in the oft-unpredictable AFC South at BetRivers Sportsbook.

Indianapolis Colts (+120)

The Colts were just 7-9 despite lots of talent last year, but they’ve gently upgraded from Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers at quarterback and they added second-team All-Pro defensive lineman DeForest Buckner to the defensive front. In most worlds, that wouldn’t be enough to become a division favorite after posting a losing record, but the AFC South isn’t your typical NFL division. Indy will almost certainly be in the fray.

Tennessee Titans (+160)

Meanwhile, Tennessee is perennially in said fray. They’ve gone 9-7 in four consecutive seasons and are back with the same core that took them to the AFC championship game on a surprise run in 2019. The problem is that felt like a bit of an aberration for a team that hasn’t looked like a real Super Bowl threat in years. Do you trust that breakout quarterback-running back duo Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry can sustain that craziness from last December and January? It’s a fair question.

Houston Texans (+350)

Houston won the division in 2019 with a 10-6 record but has attracted negative buzz as a result of some weird moves under Bill O’Brien’s tutelage. Their decision to trade away All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins is a huge reason why they’re now expected to finish second-last in the South despite winning the thing in four of the last five years.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2200)

The Jags are tanking so there’s little reason to waste even a dollar on them. Sure, it could be fun to root for some Gardner Minshew magic with an extreme underdog and enticing odds, but eleventh-hour parts with young talents Yannick Ngakoue and Leonard Fournette provided icing on the cake. This is now a rebuild.

Predicted winner: Houston — Remember when Calvin Johnson retired and Matthew Stafford improved because he was no longer forcing it to his star receiver? That could absolutely happen to Deshaun Watson, who now has plenty of options in his arsenal and a promising offensive line for once as well. Throw in elite talent on defense and it’s very strange that the Texans are available at +350 in a division with four untrustworthy teams.

Where the AFC South odds value’s at: Houston — Obviously!

Don’t touch with a 10-foot pole: Indianapolis or Tennessee — Rivers appears to be declining fast and Henry and Tannehill were never Pro Bowlers before exploding in 2019. Now they’ve lost stud offensive tackle Jack Conklin. With those sub-+200 odds, why bother?

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com