AFC West Odds – Three Way Race

The AFC West odds situation in 2022 differs markedly from years past when the Kansas City Chiefs sat high above everyone else on the divisional ladder.

This year, anyone could win and three teams have legit odds to win the AFC West. Trades, free agency have bolstered the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers while the Las Vegas Raiders are only 7-1 longshots as the fourth betting choice.

Kansas City Chiefs +155

The Chiefs have won six straight AFC West titles behind an exceptional record at Arrow Head Stadium. At home last season Kansas City was 9-3 and in their last 30 games at home they’ve gone 24-6.

The Chiefs shocked the football world in the offseason when they traded wide receiver Tyreek Hill to Miami. Patrick Holmes does still have his security blanket Travis Kelce, but it will be up to new additions JJ Smith-Schuster, Marques Valdez-Scantling and rookie Skyy Moore to fill the large void left by Hill.

Judging the Chiefs defense by stats alone this season could be difficult because their schedule includes a barrage of the league’s top offenses.  Out of last year’s Top 10 offenses the Chiefs face six of them this season.

Los Angeles Chargers +240

The Chargers were 9-8 last season but five of those losses were by a touchdown or less, and two of them were by a field goal. Will offseason improvements on defense change that?

Justin Herbert led the Chargers to a Top 5 offense last season. All his favorite weapons remain so that shouldn’t change this season. A few of Herbert’s big guns include Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

The Chargers’ defense was abysmal last season and gave up more points than all but two other teams in the league. Those other teams were the Lions and the Jets. Woof! To try and give the defense a jolt Los Angeles brought in Khalil Mack, J.C. Jackson and Kyle Van Noy. If the D clicks the Chiefs need to worry about the Chargers.

Denver Broncos +260

The offseason saw big changes in Denver with Nathanial Hackett taking over the head coach job from Vic Fangio and Russell Wilson giving the Broncos a major upgrade at quarterback. Will that lead to an improvement within the division where they were 1-5 last season?

Wilson is a game-changer for a Broncos offense that had a hard time finding the end zone with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock under center. Javonte Williams had a breakout season last year, while Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy should relish the chance to play with Wilson. One big blow for the receiving corps was the loss of Tim Patrick to a season-ending knee injury.

The Broncos fielded a Top 3 scoring defense last season. Despite that success Ejiro Evero takes over as defensive coordinator under Hackett. Denver stole Randy Gregory away from Dallas to try and improve their pass rush after racking up 36 sacks last season.

Las Vegas Raiders +700

The Raiders finished ahead of both Los Angeles and Denver last season and earned a Wild Card spot at 10-7. Josh McDaniels gets another shot as head coach after a tumultuous time in Denver a decade ago.

The Raiders made some noise in the offseason by trading for Davante Adams. He and Derek Carr showed great chemistry in college when they played at Fresno State. Can they rekindle that in Las Vegas?

The Raiders won four games in overtime last season and overall scored fewer points than their defense allowed. Veteran Chandler Jones could give a boost to a mediocre pass rush if he can stay healthy.

Archived AFC West odds article Sept. 2, 2021

The Chiefs look for a third trip to the Super Bowl. They are clear frontrunners in the AFC West odds lineup with the Chargers the lone reasonable challenger. Check out the latest odds at FanDuel and Draft Kings

Kansas City Chiefs -290

Patrick Mahomes took 10 sacks, and three quarterback hits in the Super Bowl, leading to a 31-9 loss. The entire offseason went into fixing the offensive line that caused the mess in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are going to run out five new starting offensive linemen Week 1 against the Browns. 

The offensive line may take time to gel, but Mahomes is still the starting quarterback. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs finished 2nd in offensive efficiency, and they will be around that mark this season. 

L.A Chargers +490

The Chargers had the fourth-worst injury luck on defense last year, according to Football Outsiders. Derwin James and missed the entire year, and Joey Bosa only played 53 percent of the snaps. On top of that, the Chargers hired Brandon Staley, one of the brightest young minds in football. 

The Chargers are Super Bowl contenders if they can stay healthy. Anthony Lynn held back this offense, running the ball 51.9 percent of the time on early downs when you have the best young quarterback in football. Expect new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi to unlock this offense. 

Denver Broncos +700

Denver finished 30th last year in offensive efficiency. Teddy Bridgewater won the starting quarterback job in training camp over Drew Lock and will be asked to be a “game manager” style quarterback considering how good this defense can be. 

The Broncos’ defense is going to be scary. They get Von Miller back fully healthy and have talent all over the field. Vic Fangio is arguably the best defensive coach in football and could turn this defense into an all-time defensive unit if they stay healthy. 

Las Vegas Raiders +1700

The Raiders are 19-29 in three seasons under Jon Gruden. The offense has not been the issue, however. They rank 8th in EPA per play over the last two seasons. So what has gone wrong over the previous three seasons? 

Well, the defense has been atrocious. According to Football Outsiders, they finished 28th in DVOA last season and did little to fix their issues on that side of the ball. The Raiders are going to finish last in the AFC West. 

AFC West Best Bet

Taking the Chiefs at -290 doesn’t bring much juice. I would take a serious look at the Chargers +490. If the Chargers can stay healthy, they will be a threat to make it out of the AFC. 

Odds to win AFC West 2020 Archived article by Brad Gagnon

It may be that the Chiefs are THAT good or it may be that the rest of the division is THAT medicore. With that in mind, let’s break down divisional odds in the Kansas City Chief-owned AFC West at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kansas City Chiefs (-455)

You’re not going to make much money betting on the defending Super Bowl champions to win a so-so division in 2019, but it’s also the closest thing there is to a lock in this NFL-betting realm. The Chiefs won the West by a five-game margin in 2019, and that was despite the fact superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes wasn’t healthy for much of the year. Mahomes is healthy now, the roster looks extremely strong despite a few losses, and Kansas City should again dominate in 2020.

Los Angeles Chargers (+800)

In another division, the talented Chargers would definitely be worth it at +800. But with Philip Rivers gone, rookie quarterback Justin Herbert likely to require time for marination after a limited initial NFL offseason and star safety Derwin James out for the season due to a knee injury, it’s not likely in the cards for the Bolts.

Denver Broncos (+900)

If you’re morbidly looking to bet on somebody else in the West with in case the football gods hit the Chiefs with season-crippling injuries, the Broncos are the better candidate than Los Angeles. There are too many question marks surrounding the Chargers, while there’s a lot of optimism regarding a Denver team that went 4-1 down the stretch with potential franchise quarterback Drew Lock in 2019. Lock now has far more support than he did then, and the defense — which will get young stud Bradley Chubb back from injury — has added A.J. Bouye and Jurrell Casey in support of Chubb and Von Miller.

Las Vegas Raiders (+1200)

This isn’t a terrible bet either considering the odds, but you’re absolutely betting on morbid chaos, particularly in Kansas City. The Raiders do have the talent to compete on both sides of the ball, but a lot has to come together. There are too many “ifs” surrounding this team from head to toe.

Predicted winner: Kansas City — I doubt you’ll find a single outlet, analyst or pundit who would be willing to pick anybody else to win this thing in 2020.

Where the AFC West odds value’s at: Denver and Las Vegas — Lock and Raiders quarterback Derek Carr both have the capability to lead the way in big seasons, and both have decent enough supporting casts as well. Denver has more weapons on defense but is drawing odds that aren’t as enticing. Either way, you’re likely throwing away money unless the poop hits the fan in K.C.

Don’t touch with a 10-foot pole: Los Angeles — It’s beginning to look like another Murphy’s Law year for the Bolts. Don’t put your money on Tyrod Taylor and a questionable offensive line.