Jan 19, 2020; Santa Clara, California, USA; Green Bay Packers nose tackle Kenny Clark (97) reacts after a defensive play during the first half in the NFC Championship Game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Falcons vs Packers Betting Pick, MNF Best Bet

You look at the Monday Night Football point spread and total and think ‘gosh 56.5 is way too high,’ but then you check the stats.

Atlanta has averaged 30 points a game in starting 0-3 with two gut-wrenching losses. Green Bay has averaged almost 41 PPG in cruising to a surprise 3-0 start. Throw in the fact Atlanta is allowing 36 PPG and Green Bay more than 28 PPG and 56.5 may seem pretty low.

Those types of high-scoring games can be hell on point spreads and back-door covers. And Atlanta should be screaming mad to finally get into the win column against a Packers team that might be a little satisfied with themselves.

Falcons Packers line: -7 Packers Total 56.5 as of Friday at BetRivers

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Why the Falcons will cover the spread

We just mentioned motivation and desperation as reasons Atlanta should be competitive here. And Trend Dummy dug out plenty of trend support in his weekly column that points to the Falcons being in good shape here.

Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in their past 5 road games and 6-1 ATS in their past 7 games at Green Bay. They have also won 5 straight Moday Nighters and have bitten hard as an underdog, rolling up a 6-1 ATS streak in their past 7 games when catching points.

Allen Lazard did not practice Thursday and Davante Adams was limited in practice, injury situations worth watching. Maybe that sky-high total won’t get surpassed after all?

Why the Packers will cover the spread

Aaron Rodgers has been awesome, with or without the aforementioned Adams as his favorite target. The defense is giving up points but Rodgers has been putting up more. That is probably not a sustainable strategy against good defensive teams, but Atlanta is not one of those teams.

Check the trends working in Green Bay’s favor here: 10-1 SU past 11 games as the favorite: 12-2 SU past 14 games vs NFC foes; won 7 straight at home; 6-1 SU past 7 Monday Night games.

Falcons Packers Pick

Some teams fight like crazy after bad losses. Other teams fold up like a cheap card table. We like Atlanta to stay within a TD here on Monday Night. It’s probably going to be high-scoring and the  overall trend between these teams has trended that way (11-4 the past 15 ties these teams have met).

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

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