Aug 19, 2020; Owings Mills, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith (22) warms up before the morning session of training camp at Under Armour Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Ravens Bills Playoff Pick, Divisional Analysis

Both of these teams are red hot ATS. Let’s start with the Buffalo Bills, 8-1 ATS in their last nine games, and coming off their first playoff win in 25 years. The Bills are also 19-2 SU in their last 21 games as the favorite, and are entering this game as 2.5 point favorites.

The Baltimore Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog, and have done fairly well on the road recently. They are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 road games.

Something has to give here. I am sticking with my pre-season Super Bowl pick and taking the Ravens in the upset. 

Also, check out my Top 5 Bills Ravens playoff prop bets featuring the usual suspects – Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen – figuring prominently in our profit potential.

Ravens Bills Playoff Pick, Odds: Buffalo -2.5, Total 50 at SugarHouse NJ | Matchup Report

Why Baltimore will cover the spread

Lamar Jackson continues to make fans jump out of their seats every weekend. He had his rough moments throwing the ball last week, but he was unstoppable on the ground. He finished with 136 yards on 16 carries, and had a 48-yard TD run that changed the trajectory of the game. 

Buffalo’s weakness on defense is their ability to stop the run, and that is not a good sign for Bills fans. Baltimore led the league in rushing this season, averaging 191.1 yards per game on the ground. Buffalo gave up 4.6 yards per carry this season, which was good for 25th in the league. 

Baltimore’s defense also matches up very well against the Bills offense. Buffalo likes to air it out deep, finishing 4th in the NFL on completions of 20+ yards. Well, Baltimore gave up the 4th fewest completions of 20+ yards this season. The Bills are going to have to establish a ground game in this one, and their RBs only saw 10 carries combined last week against the Colts. 

Why Buffalo will cover the spread

The Bills ultimately overpowered the Colts last week. They got off to a shaky start, but the Bills offense is simply too good. Josh Allen threw for 324 yards and 2 TDs, finishing the game with a 121.6 passer rating. 

Baltimore’s defense played stellar last week, but overall they do have some holes. They finished 26th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed at 4.6, so the Bills offense has to adapt. The Ravens love to send pressure, blitzing more than any team in the league this season. Guess who has the best passer rating against the blitz this season? Josh Allen. 

Ravens Bills Playoff Pick

It’s really tough to bet against Buffalo right now. Going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games is very impressive. However, I think Baltimore has that “it” factor this year.

They run the ball tremendously well, and Lamar has rarely turned the ball over in the second half of the season. Baltimore wins this one outright as small road dogs. 

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @ BrendenDeegNFP   He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com

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