Injuries made the Under the right choice for several running back rushing props last season. Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Saquon Barkley all missed multiple games last season which cut deep into their rushing numbers. You can’t predict who’ll be bit by the injury bug, but a couple bounce back seasons and potentially lucrative Over bets appear to be in the cards if key back remains healthy
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Derrick Henry Total Rushing Yards 1300
Last year Henry was on-pace for more than 1800 yards before a foot injury shortened his season. In eight games Henry rushed for 937 yards. That calculates out to 117 yards per game. The season before when Henry took home Offensive Player of the Year honors he rushed for 2,027 yards with one fewer game on the schedule.
In the offseason the Titans shipped out their No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown and replaced him with Robert Woods who’s coming off a serious knee injury. This could lead the Tennessee leaning harder on Henry. If Henry were to play in 16 games this season, he would only need to average just over 81 yards per game to top 1300. Take the OVER 1300 Rushing Yards at FanDuel.
Christian McCaffrey Total Rushing Yards 875.5
Since rushing for a career-high 1387 yards in 2019 McCaffrey can’t seem to catch a break. In 2020 a shoulder injury limited him to just three games. Last season an ankle injury ended his season after only seven games. In those two seasons combined McCaffrey tallied only 667 rushing yards.
McCaffrey is a two-way threat out of the backfield which actually hurts his overall rushing numbers. In his career McCaffrey surprisingly only averages 61.8 rushing yards per game. If you he were to average that over a full 17 games season it comes out to 1051 yards. That’s still higher than 875.5. The football Gods should be kind to McCaffrey this season and he’ll put up solid numbers again. Take the OVER 875.5 Rushing Yards at FanDuel.
Dalvin Cook Total Rushing Yards 1125.5
According to reports the Minnesota Vikings offense could look a little different this season. Kevin O’Connell takes over the reigns as head coach after serving as offensive coordinator for the pass-happy Los Angeles Rams last season. The Rams were 5th in the NFL in passing last season and 28th in rushing. If he brings this pass-heavy style to Minnesota it could hurt Cook’s rushing totals.
In 13 games last season Cook rushed for 1159 yards. Cook missing a couple game a season isn’t a new thing, as he has never suited up for every game in a season in his entire career. If Cooks misses his usual couple of games and Kirk Cousins begins passing more, look for Cook to get the ball less and ultimately put up fewer yards. Take the UNDER 1125.5 Rushing Yards at FanDuel.
Archived NFL Running Back Props article from Aug. 28, 2021
Every year there are surprises in the backfield, every year there are injuries and holdouts and OL problems. Every year, there is money to be made betting on NFL RB props. Check out Deeg’s top 3 picks among the top 3 RB culprits.
Christian McCaffrey Total Rushing Yards 1200.5
The undisputed 1st overall pick in every fantasy football draft worldwide is back healthy for the 2021 season. McCaffrey only played in three games last season after suffering ankle and shoulder injuries.
It’s important to remember that every total is inflated due to the extra game. In 2019, McCaffrey had 1387 rushing yards on 287 carries. Last year, Derrick Henry led the league with 387 carries. I don’t think McCaffrey will come close to that, but the 300 range is very realistic. Let’s say McCaffrey has 305 carries this season.
That would mean he needs to average 3.9 yards per carry to hit 1200. He should be closer to his 2019 average of 4.8 if he is healthy. Take the OVER 1200.5 Rushing Yards at FanDuel.
Saquon Barkley Total Rushing Yards 1175.5
It’s already been three years since Saquon Barkley took the league by storm in his rookie season. He had 1307 rushing yards on 261 carries and had Giants fans excited for the future. In the last two years combined, he only has 1037 rushing yards in 15 games played. Barkley only played two games last season before tearing his ACL, which ultimately ended his 2020 campaign.
Barkley has missed 17 games over the last two seasons. It isn’t easy to trust that he will be healthy for all 17 games in 2021. The Giants will for sure be throwing the ball more than in recent years, as they added wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarious Toney. We play the UNDER 1175.5 Rushing Yards at FanDuel.
Ezekiel Elliot Total Rushing Yards 1150.5
Zeke has been able to stay relatively healthy over the last three seasons. He has only missed two games during that stretch and his said to be fully healthy and in the best shape of his life for the 2021 season.
Elliot has eclipsed 1150.5 yards in three of his five seasons in the league. Elliott has a $13.7 million cap hit this year, so you better believe they will be using him as much as possible. He should hit 1150.5 with ease if he stays healthy. We like the OVER 1150.5 Rushing Yards at FanDuel.
2020 NFL Running Back Props article, Sept. 10, 2020
No way Christian McCaffery eclipses 1900 yards again. Saquon Barkley will finally live up to his draft hype. Ezekiel Elliot will find the end zone early and often this season. Here are my prop predictions for the top three running backs in the NFL.
Total Receiving & Rushing Yards 1900.5: Take UNDER 1,900.5 (-110)
There is one main reason I am going with the under here, I think 1,900 yards is an asinine number. Christian McCaffrey’s stats last season were astronomical and can’t be denied.. He racked up 2392 total yards on 394 touches last season. Difficult to believe that newly hired Matt Rhule allows McCaffery to have that amount of touches this season.
Rhule knows this is a stopgap season for him and the Panthers. He needs to see what he has in his team, so I expect a more balanced offense this season. They relied heavily on McCaffery with Kyle Allen at quarterback, that won’t be the case this season. Teddy Bridgewater will step it up and should be a Top 20 quarterback this season, which means guys like D.J Moore and Curtis Samuel should see some more looks.
I expect McCaffery to have a big season, however not 1900 yards. Hammer the under on this one.
Total Rushing Yards 1200: Take OVER 1,200.5
I love the over on this one. Saquon eclipsed 1307 yards in his rookie year where he played all 16 games. Last season, he missed three games and still had 1003 yards in what most people called a drop off effort for him.
Saqoun is entering 2020 healthy and I expect him to bounce back from a mediocre 2019. The Giants did nott do much this offseason to add weapons around Daniel Jones, so Saquon once again will be the focal point of this offense.
Saquon had 217 carries last season and if he plays all 16 games I expect that number to be closer to 300. If he can just average 4.6 yards per carry at 280 touches that is 1288 yards. Remember he only averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season. I expect it to be around 4.8 this season. Don’t even hesitate on this one, take the over.
Total Rushing Touchdowns: Take OVER 9.5
In both seasons that Ezekiel Elliott has played all 16 games he has surpassed 9.5 touchdowns. Don’t overthink this, he will do it again if he plays all 16 games in 2020. Even with the Cowboys loaded roster, I still expect Zeke to be the focal point of the offense, especially in the red zone.
Additionally, I think Zeke will find the end zone more this season due to the simple fact that Dallas does have a loaded roster. Their offense should be top five in the league, which should translate in plenty of touches for Zeke in the red zone. I think this line is too low, and this is easily my favorite prop bet out of any running back. Hammer the over here.
The season kicks off tonight, check out the latest NFL Running Back props at FanDuel Sportsbook.