McCaffrey, Saquon, Zeke?
Every year there are surprises in the backfield, every year there are injuries and holdouts and OL problems. Every year, there is money to be made betting on NFL RB props. Check out Deeg’s top 3 picks among the top 3 RB culprits.
Christian McCaffrey Total Rushing Yards 1200.5
The undisputed 1st overall pick in every fantasy football draft worldwide is back healthy for the 2021 season. McCaffrey only played in three games last season after suffering ankle and shoulder injuries.
It’s important to remember that every total is inflated due to the extra game. In 2019, McCaffrey had 1387 rushing yards on 287 carries. Last year, Derrick Henry led the league with 387 carries. I don’t think McCaffrey will come close to that, but the 300 range is very realistic. Let’s say McCaffrey has 305 carries this season.
That would mean he needs to average 3.9 yards per carry to hit 1200. He should be closer to his 2019 average of 4.8 if he is healthy. Take the OVER 1200.5 Rushing Yards at FanDuel.
Saquon Barkley Total Rushing Yards 1175.5
It’s already been three years since Saquon Barkley took the league by storm in his rookie season. He had 1307 rushing yards on 261 carries and had Giants fans excited for the future. In the last two years combined, he only has 1037 rushing yards in 15 games played. Barkley only played two games last season before tearing his ACL, which ultimately ended his 2020 campaign.
Barkley has missed 17 games over the last two seasons. It isn’t easy to trust that he will be healthy for all 17 games in 2021. The Giants will for sure be throwing the ball more than in recent years, as they added wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarious Toney. We play the UNDER 1175.5 Rushing Yards at FanDuel.
Ezekiel Elliot Total Rushing Yards 1150.5
Zeke has been able to stay relatively healthy over the last three seasons. He has only missed two games during that stretch and his said to be fully healthy and in the best shape of his life for the 2021 season.
Elliot has eclipsed 1150.5 yards in three of his five seasons in the league. Elliott has a $13.7 million cap hit this year, so you better believe they will be using him as much as possible. He should hit 1150.5 with ease if he stays healthy. We like the OVER 1150.5 Rushing Yards at FanDuel.
2020 NFL Running Back Props article, Sept. 10, 2020
No way Christian McCaffery eclipses 1900 yards again. Saquon Barkley will finally live up to his draft hype. Ezekiel Elliot will find the end zone early and often this season. Here are my prop predictions for the top three running backs in the NFL.
Total Receiving & Rushing Yards 1900.5: Take UNDER 1,900.5 (-110)
There is one main reason I am going with the under here, I think 1,900 yards is an asinine number. Christian McCaffrey’s stats last season were astronomical and can’t be denied.. He racked up 2392 total yards on 394 touches last season. Difficult to believe that newly hired Matt Rhule allows McCaffery to have that amount of touches this season.
Rhule knows this is a stopgap season for him and the Panthers. He needs to see what he has in his team, so I expect a more balanced offense this season. They relied heavily on McCaffery with Kyle Allen at quarterback, that won’t be the case this season. Teddy Bridgewater will step it up and should be a Top 20 quarterback this season, which means guys like D.J Moore and Curtis Samuel should see some more looks.
I expect McCaffery to have a big season, however not 1900 yards. Hammer the under on this one.
Total Rushing Yards 1200: Take OVER 1,200.5
I love the over on this one. Saquon eclipsed 1307 yards in his rookie year where he played all 16 games. Last season, he missed three games and still had 1003 yards in what most people called a drop off effort for him.
Saqoun is entering 2020 healthy and I expect him to bounce back from a mediocre 2019. The Giants did nott do much this offseason to add weapons around Daniel Jones, so Saquon once again will be the focal point of this offense.
Saquon had 217 carries last season and if he plays all 16 games I expect that number to be closer to 300. If he can just average 4.6 yards per carry at 280 touches that is 1288 yards. Remember he only averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season. I expect it to be around 4.8 this season. Don’t even hesitate on this one, take the over.
Total Rushing Touchdowns: Take OVER 9.5
In both seasons that Ezekiel Elliott has played all 16 games he has surpassed 9.5 touchdowns. Don’t overthink this, he will do it again if he plays all 16 games in 2020. Even with the Cowboys loaded roster, I still expect Zeke to be the focal point of the offense, especially in the red zone.
Additionally, I think Zeke will find the end zone more this season due to the simple fact that Dallas does have a loaded roster. Their offense should be top five in the league, which should translate in plenty of touches for Zeke in the red zone. I think this line is too low, and this is easily my favorite prop bet out of any running back. Hammer the over here.
The season kicks off tonight, check out the latest NFL Running Back props at FanDuel Sportsbook.