Sep 13, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Blake Jarwin (89) leaves the field after being injured during the first half against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Recap NFL Debrief

Week 1 taught bettors some lessons and warned us what we should expect the rest of the way. Our quick Monday football debriefing session.

OVERS beat UNDERS 9-7

OVER bettors had an early 9-5 edge on Week 1 but both MNF games went UNDER. Underdogs matched favorites 8-8 SU (8-7-1 ATS), which is great news for early-season bettors picking moneyline dog. (Learn about football moneylines and when its better to wager on the ML than the point spread).

Cowboys in trouble?

With Blake Jarwin and Leighton Vander Esch both hurt, Dallas slipped in both NFC East odds (still favored at -114 but only because the Eagles looked so terrible) and Super Bowl odds (down to 20-1 from 15-1), all odds courtesy of BetRivers.

Week 1 Trends hold up

Some handicappers make fun of trends, saying they don’t apply especially from season-to-season. Well, a few held up again in Week 1. Detroit played their 10th straight Week 1 OVER and the trend of Super Bowl winners winning in Week 1 (KC over Houston) and Super Bowl losers losing in Week 1 (Arizona over San Francisco) both held up.

Green Bay won outright as a Week 1 road underdog for the fourth straight time and others hit as well. Miami lost again in Foxboro (now 1-8 ATS run and 3-19 SU as an underdog overall). And a lot of OVER trends held up in the Bucs-Saints game.

Not so much for the Bears (who broke a streak of six straight Week 1 ATS losses) or the Seahawks (who bucked a trend of September losses as a road dog). The Steelers also won their 10th straight Monday Nighter and the Giants continued with horrible home angles.

Big road chalk = big road chokes

Two teams were favored by a TD on the road and both lost outright against teams projected as the worst in the NFL. Philly got ahead 17-0 then choked to Washington 27-17 (Gagnon warned Eagles backers about this in his picks column) while Jacksonville upset the Colts.

NFL prop bet monsters

Daily fantasy guys (and gals) and NFL prop bet specialists learned a lot from week 1 as well. First, KC rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not going to be gently eased into the offense and his 138 rushing yards against a stout Texans defense will inflate his Week 2 numbers.

Second, Arizona plans to get its money;s worth out of DeAndre Hopkins, who went for 14 catches and 151 yards. Expect a similarly inflated receiving yards over-under number for Week 2. Third, Josh Jacobs in Las Vegas could get greedy for TDs as he went for three against the Panthers – prop bets on players to score multiple TDs in one game usually provide juicy payouts, so watch his matchups going forward.

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.