Jan 17, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) before the snap against the Cleveland Browns during the second half in the AFC Divisional Round playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Bills Chiefs Pick, AFC Title Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills have never won a Super Bowl, while the Kansas City Chiefs are the league’s most recent winner of the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Sunday evening, the two will square off with a trip to Super Bowl LV on the line.

The Chiefs beat the Bills during the regular season and are unsurprisingly favored at home, but they’re only giving up a field goal and there are serious questions about the state of their banged-up roster coming off a 11-week stretch in which they failed to win a single game by more than six points.

This should be a damn close game with a damn close spread, still sitting at -3 as of Friday at BetRivers and SugarHouse sportsbooks.

Check out also Deeg’s top Chiefs Bills Playoff prop bets on this game, with Anytime TD predictions and more.

Bills Chiefs Betting Pick, Odds: -3, Total 54 | Matchup Report 


Chiefs superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes is no guarantee to play as he remains in concussion protocol. If he does suit up, it’s important to remember that Mahomes is also dealing with a toe injury which was clearly bothering him in Kansas City’s divisional-round victory over the Cleveland Browns.

Beyond that, running back Le’Veon Bell (knee), linebacker Willie Gay Jr. (ankle), receiver Sammy Watkins (calf), back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip), cornerback Bashaud Breeland (concussion, shoulder) and corner Rashad Fenton (foot) are all banged up for the Chiefs, who do not look as though they’ll get right tackle Mitchell Schwartz back either.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is healthy, as is the rest of his team, and Buffalo’s only loss since falling to the Chiefs in Week 6 came via an Arizona Cardinals Hail Mary. Plus, they’re getting a full field goal in a stadium that will remain mostly empty, while riding a 9-1 ATS streak, according to Trend Dummy.


While the Chiefs haven’t blown anybody out since crushing the New York Jets nearly three months ago, they haven’t lost any games that they tried to win during that stretch. And in this case, that run of close calls has them surrendering just a field goal at home despite the fact Mahomes has won 24 of his last 25 starts dating back to the middle of November 2019.

It still looks as though the reigning Super Bowl MVP will be on the field Sunday evening, and it’s tough to bet against such a heroic player under those circumstances.

The Browns nearly beat the Chiefs by riding star backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt down the stretch, but Buffalo is without its most talented running back, Zack Moss, and might not have the backfield weaponry to take advantage of Kansas City’s vulnerabilities in run defense. Instead, a lot could fall on Allen in the biggest spot of his career, with dominant pass-rusher Chris Jones breathing down on an offensive line that has been susceptible to pressure in the middle this year.


Chiefs by a field goal makes a lot of sense, as this is the type of game that could come down to the last possession or go into overtime. When asked to give up three points in those cases, I usually side with the home favorite.

If you can get good value for the hook, don’t shy away from taking a chance on Buffalo. But if you’re only giving up three, the Chiefs are the smarter play. Forget about their 0-8-1 ATS streak to end the season when it comes crunch time with a Super Bowl berth at stake.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

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