Buffalo vs Miami Pick, Betting Analysis

If you were wondering how often the Buffalo Bills are road favorites of 5.5 points, the answer is only twice in the past 12 seasons. However, one of those magical times – when the Bills were considered the superior team and justified with such a large road number – was just last season.

And they won 37-20. In a divisional game at Miami. Same scenario this week. Which is presumably a good sign for Buffalo bettors. 

The Bills dominated the Jets Week 1, with the Bills new passing offense on full display. Josh Allen threw a career high 46 times on Sunday for 312 yards and two TDs. The Bills defense also gave Sam Darnold fits all game, as the third-year starter struggled to get anything going all game. 

The Miami Dolphins had their hands full with Cam Newton and the New England Patriots, falling 21-11. Miami struggled against the Patriots new rushing attack, as six different Patriots had over 20 yards rushing. 

Bills Dolphins Line: Buffalo -5.5 Total 41 – SugarHouse Sportsbook

If Allen can look like he did Week 1, then this should be an easy cover. Allen had a passer rating of 104.6 and seemed comfortable all game. Miami does not have a strong pass rush so Allen should be able to pick apart this defense. Miami did not get tested very much in the air, as the Patriots only threw the ball 19 times. 

On defense, Buffalo will be happy to see Ryan Fitzpatrick, as he struggled last Sunday throwing three interceptions. The Bills defense gave Darnold a bunch of different looks and Sean McDermott is known for that. I expect the same this week against a veteran like Fitzpatrick, who was 0-2 against the Bills last season. I see that trend continuing.. 

Why Miami will cover the spread

Even with the Dolphins going 0-2 against the Bills in 2019, they didn’t play all that bad. Fitzpatrick actually played well, throwing for 605 yards in those two games combined. They were able to move the ball and it came down to the defense not being able to get stops. 

The Miami defense simply wasn’t tested in the passing game last Sunday. It will be a different story in this game as Buffalo is a passing offense. Miami has one of the better cornerback duos in the league with Byron Jones and Xavier Howard. They have the potential to shut down the Bills receivers. 

Buffalo vs Miami Pick

I like Buffalo to win, but 5.5 points is too much. Miami’s cornerbacks should be able to give the Bills wide receivers enough trouble to keep this game close. I like the home dogs in a divisional matchup, I play Miami +5.5 and the UNDER.