Dec 21, 2019; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver N'Keal Harry (15) tries to break free from Buffalo Bills outside linebacker Matt Milano (58) during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Bills Patriots Pick, MNF Preview

Do you dare bet against a team that is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games as home underdogs? That is New England’s record since late 2001 when catching points at home and they are even better ATS at 12-1.

And to say the New England Patriots have owned the Buffalo Bills over the last 20 years would be an understatement. The Patriots are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games against the Bills at Foxboro. This year, things have changed.

[ See also Deeg’s four-pack of Patriots Bills prop bets in this MNF clash ] 

The Bills clinched the AFC East title last week. This is their first AFC East crown since 1995. I think this is a big let down spot for the Bills. The Patriots will keep this one close. Give me the Patriots +7. 

Bills Patriots Betting Pick, Odds: New England +7.5, Total 47 at SugarHouse | Matchup Report 

Why the Patriots will cover the spread

This has definitely been a different year for Patriots fans. After 20 years of straight dominance in the AFC East, they will finish in 3rd place behind the Dolphins and Bills. This team has many question marks going forward, and they could look a lot different when they play their first game in 2021. 

I still think the Patriots are going to fight right to the end. Bill Belichick is the best coach in the business, and will have his team ready to play. Cam Newton is also playing for a job in 2021, so I expect him to continue to play hard. 

The Bills run defense is very suspect. Newton and the Patriots run game had some success in their last game against the Bills. Harris and Newton combined for 156 yards and 2 TDs in their Week 8 matchup. I think they can muck this game up and keep it close. 

Why the Bills will cover the spread

It’s a great time to be a Buffalo Bills fan. The Patriots have won the AFC East for 12 straight seasons. It must feel good as a Bills fan to end that streak. The Bills might ultimately end up in 2nd in the AFC, so they still have something to play for. 

The Patriots run defense has been atrocious this season. They rank dead last in rush defense DVOA. Zack Moss is someone to watch out for in this game. He has double digit carries in three straight games, and looks like he will be the lead back for the Bills heading into the playoffs. I think he has a big night. 

Bills Patriots Betting pick

The Bills are due for a letdown game. They are still on a high from clinching the AFC East, and could be looking ahead this game. The Patriots players still have tons to play for considering this team is due for a rebuild. I think they keep it close. Take the Patriots and the points. 

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @ BrendenDeegNFP   He can reached at

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