Oct 6, 2019; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans kicker Cairo Santos (7) misses his first of two field goals during the first half against the Buffalo Bills at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Bills vs Titans Pick, Analysis

Uncertainty around the Covid-19 situation with Tennessee delayed these odds and delayed this game, but now the Buffalo Bills are road favorites in a rare Tuesday night NFL matchup.

It’s a battle of unbeatens, as the Titans are 3-0 and the Bills are 4-0. Tennessee already had one game pushed later in the season after dozens of positive Covid-19 tests. Making this Bills Titans pick is the most difficult task of the week by far.

Buffalo gets a 3.5-point edge from oddsmakers at BetRivers and SugarHouse sportsbooks, while the total was high at 52.5 as of Tuesday morning.

Bills vs Titans Odds: Tennessee +3.5, Total 52.5 | Matchup Report

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo appears to be legit contenders and remain settled at 14-1 in Super Bowl futures, the highest the Bills have been in years. And they boast a Top 10 rated run defense, which will be tested by Derrick Henry and the Titans.

The Bills have remained active in practice while the Titans have been distracted and unable to fully prepare while working through the Covid-19 mess.

On the trend site, Buffalo always seems to win SU as favored, as they are on a 18-3 SU run in this situation. And they encounter a team that for some reason struggles in Week 5, with a 1-7-1 ATS mark in the past nine seasons.

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Why the Titans can cover the spread

If rest can be a great thing, Tennessee should be great tonight. They have not played since Sept. 27 but have endured the uncertainty of the virus.

This is an undefeated team coming off rest and playing at home with a heavy ground attack that can control this game. Tennessee has won four of their past seven SU as home underdogs, which is tonight’s scenario but the Bills have won five straight (4-1 ATS) their past 5 as road chalk.

Bills Titans Pick

Making a pick in this scenario is a brutal assignment, with an unbeaten team the home underdog. But that team has been in disarray against a 4-0 team. Handicapping logic would send bettors towards the home dog in this case, but we are nervous with that strategy.

More likely, Tennessee will rely on the ground game that has been their hallmark in recent years and grind the clock to keep this close. In this scenario, we feel the UNDER 52.5 is the best bet in a difficult handicapping situation.

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

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