Carroll: Top Week 16 TD Scorer Prop Picks
We have just three full weeks of NFL action left, and it’s important we make the most of it.
With established roles, an uptick in volume or a soft defense, all of the following players offer solid value to find the end zone this weekend.
Here are nine touchdown scorer props I like in Week 16.
Rob Gronkowski: +130 on DraftKings
There’s going to be an influx of volume up for grabs in Tampa Bay with Chris Godwin suffering a season-ending torn ACL. Not only was Godwin seeing a hefty amount of targets, he also ranks second in the NFL in red-zone looks this season among WRs.
It’s for that reason we turn to Gronk, who has plus-odds at DraftKings compared to -120 on FanDuel.
Gronk saw 11 targets last game and has scored six times this season. The Panthers rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to allowing tight end touchdowns.
After getting shut out by New Orleans, I like to think Tom Brady will look to his ol’ reliable, Gronk.
Van Jefferson: +190 on DraftKings
The Vikings have been one of the most generous defenses to wide receiver success this season, letting up the most yards per game and the fifth-most touchdowns to the position.
Jefferson seems entrenched as the WR2 for the Rams offense and offers much better value than Cooper Kupp (-175).
Playing 80-90 percent of the snaps and seeing steady targets, Jefferson is a solid option to score on Sunday.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: +210 on DraftKings
St. Brown has been rolling for Detroit, going for 73-plus yards in three consecutive games and scoring a touchdown in two of them.
The Falcons let up the third-most touchdowns to WRs, and Detroit is once again likely to be throwing plenty. This is the best value I see for a Lions player.
Pharaoh Brown: +500 on DraftKings
No team allows more touchdowns to tight ends per game than the Chargers. Brown plays the most of all Texans tight ends, and leads the group in targets.
This is a bit of a longshot, but that’s what makes touchdown props so fun. The Chargers’ defense has shown some vulnerabilities through the air, so if the Texans can move the ball at all, Brown offers a potentially really solid return at +500.
Joshua Kelley: +380 on DraftKings
It appears Austin Ekeler will be out this weekend due to his placement on the COVID-19 list. In his stead will be Justin Jackson and Kelley, and Kelly’s odds are significantly better than Jackson’s -105 odds.
The Texans allow the second-most rushing touchdowns per game and Kelley has five red-zone looks in his past two games.
With a proven role in this offense near the goal line, I like Kelley’s chances.
Albert Okwuegbunam: +390 on Caesars
Okwuegbunam is the second tight end on Denver, but seeing steady target volume (around 5 per game), and playing around 40 percent of the offensive snaps.
Across from the Broncos is the Raiders, who allow the third-most touchdowns per game to tight ends and have struggled defending them all season.
Noah Fant is +215 to score, another solid option considering he’s the starter, but I like the +390 shot here in a soft matchup.
James Robinson* to Score 2 TDs: +600 on DraftKings
Robinson is currently questionable, and if he can’t go, I like Dare Ogunbowale in his place for the reasons listed below.
The logic here is simple: no team is allowing more touchdowns to running backs than the New York Jets. It’s truly not close, either – the Jets’ 1.79 TDs allowed per game to running backs is sizably more than the rest of the league.
Just last week, Duke Johnson found the end zone twice. Now we get one of the sturdiest betting options in the running back market with Robinson.
Robinson played his highest amount of snaps since Week 6 and found the end zone last week. I expect him to have plenty of opportunities against this porous New York defense.
Mike Davis: +290 on DraftKings
Speaking of defenses that allow a lot of scores to running backs, Detroit is right behind the Jets, allowing an average of 1.57 touchdowns per game from opposing runners.
Instead of betting on Cordarrelle Patterson at -165 odds, I’m rolling with Davis at +290.
Davis sees a role in this Falcons offense and has a red zone carry in three straight games. The disparity in odds is worth our consideration, and I love this value.
Michael Gallup: +180 on Caesars
Gallup has seemingly become the second wide receiver in Dallas, playing 82 and 92 percent in the past two games, respectively, with both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper in the lineup.
Despite the playing time splits, Gallup has the longest odds to score, and thus he becomes a value play against a Washington defense seeing the sixth-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers.
Gallup is averaging 8.2 targets per game in his past five games, and few teams throw as often as Dallas. Plenty of opportunities await the wide receiver in this NFC East battle on Sunday night.
–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media
For more from Griffin Carroll, follow him on Twitter @griffybets.