Nov 15, 2020; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA;  Green Bay Packers strong safety Adrian Amos (31) returns an interception against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers/Appleton Post-Crescent via USA TODAY NETWORK

Bears Packers Pick, Betting Odds, Trends, Preview

For the 6,038,473rd time in NFL history, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers will meet Sunday night at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin. And as per usual, it’s one of those “unstoppable force vs. immovable object” matchups.

Aaron Rodgers is the NFL’s highest-rated passer, while the Chicago defense ranks No. 4 in the NFL in DVOA.

But the big difference between these two teams will be noticeable when Chicago has the ball on offense. The Bears have no idea if either of their two disappointing quarterbacks will be healthy, which could make it extremely hard for the NFC’s lowest-scoring team to keep pace.

That’s why the Packers are laying 8.5 points.

See also Deeg’s Packers Bears prop bets for this game, he has been hot with Anytime TD Scorer prop picks.

Bears Packers Pick, Odds: Green Bay -8.5 Total 45 (midweek at BetRivers) | Matchup Report 

WHY THE BEARS WILL COVER the spread

As bad as the Bears have been over the course of a four-game losing streak, 8.5 is a large number and they’ve had two weeks to prepare for a familiar, flawed opponent. Chicago’s defense also keeps it in games. Despite so many offensive shortcomings, they’ve lost by nine or more points just once all season.

In fact, the Packers haven’t beaten the Bears by that many points in any of their last five meetings. And more recently, Green Bay is just 2-4 against the spread in its last four games.

Oddsmakers might be giving the Pack too much love.

WHY THE PACKERS WILL COVER the spread

Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles aren’t even healthy, but when on the field they’ve been two of the lowest-rated passers in the NFL. That might not matter too much if the Bears could take advantage of the fact the Packers have a leaky run defense, but Chicago’s got nothing going on the ground. It is averaging a league-low 3.6 yards per carry on offense.

Plus, Rodgers is likely pissed. He sure was when he torched the Houston Texans after Green Bay’s first loss back in Week 6, and again when he lit up the San Francisco 49ers after the team’s second loss in Week 8. You don’t want to mess with Rodgers when he’s trying to send a message, and a prime-time game against the rival Bears might present that opportunity after Green Bay lost to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11.

BEARS PACKERS PICK

Trajectories are key here. The Packers know how to bounce back, while the Bears are in a free-fall. This isn’t a good matchup for Chicago at all, and the ingredients are there for a rare Green Bay-Chicago blowout.

Packers win it 34-17.

 

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

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