Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (10) warms up before a game against the Atlanta Falcons at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Bears vs Falcons Pick

The Atlanta Falcons come into Week 3 off an embarrassing collapse a week ago and a home beating before that. Their opponent will be a Chicago Bears squad coming off two straight wins to start the season.

The Falcons defense this season has been about as sturdy as a wet cardboard box, which makes this point spread – favored by 3 points – a puzzler to me. I like the Bears to not only cover this game, but win outright as well.

Falcons vs Bears odds: Falcons -3, total 47.5 at BetRivers Sportsbook | Matchup Report Stats

Why Atlanta will cover the spread

The Falcons offense hasn’t been the problem so far in 2020. Matt Ryan has thrown for 723 yards (second in NFL) while his top two receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley both rank in the Top 10 of receiving yards. However, a large portion of those stats came in garbage time Week 1 vs the Seahawks after the Falcons were down big.

Julio Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable heading into this game. His status is worth monitoring as the spread could drop below the key number of 3 if he is ruled out.

The key for the Falcons offense this week will be keeping a clean pocket for Ryan against a ferocious Bears pass rush. Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn and Akiem Hicks all had sacks lastweek and should be excited about their matchups this week.

Why Chicago will cover the spread

The Falcons defense has allowed 78 points through two games so far this season. They have been abused by both the run and pass, while applying very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The weakness of the Bears offense is their o-line, but Dante Fowler Jr. is not practising this week and is questionable heading into this game with an ankle injury.

David Montgomery got the Bears ground game going last week, churning out 82 yards on only 16 carries (5.1 YPC). I look for the Bears to control the clock with the run game, while connecting with open receivers downfield when they need to. The Falcons secondary has not covered anyone this year, allowing 772 passing yards through only two games! Even a quarterback such as Mitch Trubisky has a favorable matchup vs this Falcons pass defense.

Falcons Bears Pick

I cannot back this Falcons team until their defense shows signs of being able to hold a team under 30 points. Also, this line being -3 tells me that oddsmakers have not adjusted to the difference in home-field advantage this season.

Without fans the home team should not be getting the usual 3-point advantage. This spread should be a pick em’ in my eyes, which is why I will be taking the Bears +3 with a small wager on the Bears moneyline