FANTASY PLAYS: Lineup decisions based on opponent tendencies

Eagles Bengals Pick, Week 3 Analysis, Trends

The Eagles are currently 0-2 and have suffered two awful losses to start their season. They hold a -28 point differential, which is currently the worst in the NFC and they also hold the worst total DVOA in the NFL.

The Eagles are currently six-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday who are also 0-2. Six points is just too much for me to lay my money on the Eagles, especially against a team they are 0-10 ATS against since 1982! 

Eagles Bengals Spread: -6, Total 46.5 (may get bet down at SugarHouse)

Why the Eagles will cover  the spread

Carson Wentz has been one of the main reasons the Eagles have struggled thus far. He currently owns the 2nd worst passer rating in the NFL only behind Kirk Cousins, he is 29th in completion percentage, 28th in touchdown percentage and 29th in yards per attempt. And now their 0-2 start has effectively doomed them to missing the playoffs, according to Trend Dummy’s analysis this week.

In Week 1. he had the excuse of his offensive line, as he was sacked eight times and was running for his life the whole second half. He couldn’t use that excuse in Week 2, as the Eagles held the Los Angeles Rams defensive line in check. Aaron Donald, who was a complete wrecking ball in Week 1, was held without a sack against the Eagles. 

Wentz simply has too much talent to continue this type of play. He has played his two worst games as a pro in Week 1 and 2 and it can’t get much worse from him. The Bengals have struggled to get after the quarterback so far this season, so this can be a favorable matchup for him. 

Why the Bengals will cover the spread

The Bengals entered the 2020 as a rebuilding team. They drafted Joe Burrow with the first overall pick in last year’s draft, and they have done a complete overhaul of their roster. But they have looked pretty good in their first two games. Burrow has looked better than advertised, and they have been in both of their games to start the season. 

The Bengals are in a prime position to put a huge hole in the Eagles season and send them to 0-3. They almost never win on the road but they are 10-0 ATS against the Eagles since 1982, so history is on their side. Their offense matches up well against the Eagles defense, and could have success in the passing game.

Last week, the Rams spread the ball around and were able to keep the Eagles defense on their heels. The Bengals have more weapons on offense than the Rams do, and Zac Taylors spread-style offense should be able to keep Jim Schwartz up at night. 

Eagles Bengals pick

Although I do think the Eagles will win this game, I think coming in as six-point favorites is straight lunacy. They have done nothing this season for me to think that they can beat the Bengals by more than six. Take the Bengals and the points here, if you can get them, as some books have already moved for -5.5.