Feb 2, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) shakes hands with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy after a first quarter touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Browns Chiefs Pick, Fade KC again?

It was an ugly stretch for Kansas City Chiefs bettors to end the year. The Chiefs won their last eight games, but they did not fare well ATS. They finished the year 0-7-1 ATS after starting the year 7-1.

The Chiefs will take on a Cleveland Browns team that is coming off one of their biggest wins in franchise history. The Browns don’t have a good history of being double-digit underdogs however.

The Browns have lost 16 straight as double-digit road dogs, scoring 20 points just twice in those 16 games. Still. KC’s struggle with the spread lately is concerning and we feel the Browns will keep this one close and cover 10 points.

Check out the Top 5 Chiefs Browns playoff prop bets as well over here, with the Cleveland running back duo of Chubb and Hunt figuring prominently.

Browns Chiefs Playoff Pick, Odds: Kansas City -10, Total 57 | Matchup Report 

Why the Browns will cover the spread

I don’t think anyone predicted the Browns would blow out the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was 28-0 before anyone had a chance to sit down and enjoy the game. The Browns did that without cornerback Denzel Ward and wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge. Both of those guys have been activated from the Covid-19 list and will play on Sunday. 

The Browns need to do what they do best in this game. Run the football. The Chiefs kryptonite on defense is stopping the run. They ranked 21st in yards per game allowed on the ground and finished the year 31st in run defense DVOA.

Nick Chubb led the league with 5.6 yards per carry and Kareem Hunt is as good as it gets when it comes to a backup running back. 

The Chiefs love to air it out deep, and the Browns defense is solid at keeping everything in front of them. They finished 11th in TDs over 20+ yards allowed, and have shown they can cause turnovers. They forced five turnovers last week against the Steelers. 

Why the Chiefs will cover the spread

It’s no secret that Andy Reid has been historically dominant coming off a bye. Reid is 18-3 coming off a bye and now quarterback Patrick Mahomes is on two weeks’ rest as he didn’t play in Week 17. That could mean he is rusty, but the most likely scenario is that he comes out ready to go. 

The Browns pass defense is mediocre at best. They finished 25th in pass defense DVOA and Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards last week. And the Chiefs offense this season put up historic numbers. They finished 1st in yards per game, with wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce both having career years. 

Browns Chiefs Playoff Pick

The Browns run game will keep this one close. They can control the clock, and keep Mahomes off the field which is the recipe for success against the Chiefs. Watch out for Kareem Hunt, who will be playing his former team.

He will want to make a statement. Take the Browns and the points. 

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @ BrendenDeegNFP   He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com

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