Broncos Chiefs Pick, SNF Preview

At this point, it’s difficult to call it a rivalry.

After all, the Kansas City Chiefs have defeated the Denver Broncos in each of their last 10 meetings. But the Chiefs have been cutting it quite close lately, and they’ve played some tight games within the AFC West this season.

Plus, any given Sunday (night)!

(See also Deeg’s Chiefs Broncos Anytime TD Prop Bets for tonight).

Let’s break down the Sunday Nighter, where the Broncos are back from a COVID-19 debacle and getting 13.5 points from the defending Super Bowl champions.

Broncos Chiefs Pick, Odds: Kansas City -14, Total 51 | Matchup Report 

They’re getting quite a lot of points from a team that has won its last three games by a combined total of just nine points. Kansas City barely got past the Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers and could easily slip up again in this spot.

It also helps that Denver will have quarterback Drew Lock back after he and the rest of the signal-callers on the roster were forced to miss Week 12 as a result of COVID-19 protocols (and extra rest time could have helped) but the key could be the Broncos’ three-headed monster in the backfield against a Chiefs run defense that ranks dead-last in the league in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).

Throw in backdoor cover potential and there’s plenty of value in Denver Sunday evening.

WHY THE CHIEFS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Chiefs aren’t just 10-0 in their last 10 games against Denver, but they’re also 9-1 against the spread in those meetings. More recently, Kansas City has outscored the Broncos 96-25 in three consecutive beatdowns since the start of 2019.

K.C. is also 5-0 in prime-time games with an average margin of victory of 11.4 points.

Throw in that both Lindsay and wide receiver Jerry Jeudy are dealing with injuries and it’ll be hard for the Broncos to keep up in this spot. The Chiefs are arguably due for their next blowout, and a Denver team that may be low on gas could be the ideal victim.

BRONCOS CHIEFS PICK

The Chiefs already have five 14-plus-point victories this season, with three of those one-sided wins coming in prime time against teams that are a lot better than the current Broncos. The backdoor cover is always a concern with a line like this in a divisional game like this, but a K.C. blowout is the most likely scenario.