Broncos vs Patriots Pick, Beware Bye Week Trend

The Denver Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at Foxborough and haven’t played a game since October 1st. They take on a New England team that hasn’t played since October 5th, so while both teams are well rested, and I refuse to bet against Bill Belichick off a bye.

There is a Trend Dummy nugget that might caution against this pick – I like New England, and I think this game could be a blowout. That trend is New England’s record in home games following aa bye week. Since 1994, they have played 10 games in this situation and are 1-8-1 ATS… read the Broncos Patriots pick info and decide for yourself.

Broncos Patriots Odds: Denver +8, Total 45 at BetRivers | Matchup Report 

Cam Newton is back. After missing the last game due to Covid-19, the Patriots will get their starting QB back and well rested. Newton has been better than expected this season, throwing for 714 yards in three games, with a completion percentage of 68.1. 

The Patriots have had success on the ground this season. They own the 3rd best rushing efficiency in the league, and will have Damien Harris and Cam Newton playing together for the first time. Harris was the Patriots best player on offense against the Chiefs in Week 4, as he rushed for 100 yards on 17 carries. 

The Patriots defense will have the reigning DPOY back in Stephon Gilmore, and will be going against Drew Lock, who is making just his 9th career NFL start. Belichick thrives against young QBs, and this looks like a perfect matchup for his defense. The Broncos will be without Melvin Gordon on Sunday, which will force Denver to rely more on the passing game. 

More evidence? The Patss are 25-3 SU in their past 28 October games and have won seven straight Week 6 games if you believe in those streaks.

Why Denver can cover the spread

Lock will make his return on Sunday, after hurting his shoulder in a Week 2 loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Denver’s offense has struggled without Lock, and his return should provide a huge spark to this offense. 

Denver will have to get after Newton on Sunday. Bradley Chubb was a beast in Week 4, as he finished the game with 2.5 sacks, and was causing all sorts of problems for the New York Jets offense. Denver is 3-1 ATS this year, which is fascinating considering they have a 1-3 record. 

Broncos Patriots pick

Betting my hard earned money against Belichick off a bye is just something I am not willing to do. The Patriots have been awesome with Newton at QB, and if it wasn’t for a tough loss against Seattle, they would be 3-0 with him at the helm. I think this game could get ugly. Give me the Patriots at -8.