Sep 13, 2020; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Jamison Crowder (82) warms up prior to the game against the Buffalo Bills at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Broncos vs Jets Pick, TNF Best Bet

A pair of 0-3 teams clash on Thursday Night in a matchup that has seen bettors move the line 4 points in favor of the New York Jets since Monday. And that means the team with the worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 300-1 is a favorite tonight.

Denver opened as 3-point road favorites at SugarHouse Sportsbook, but money pouring in on the Jets left the line at -1.5 early Thursday.

Our trend early in the week was to fade the Broncos here, as they were 0-3 as road favorites, while the Jets had covered three straight as small home dogs. That trend is now upsidedown after the line move, but clearly bettors are still backing the Jets – even though they don’t have a good ATS track record as home favorites.

Broncos Jets Line: -1.5 Jets – Total 41 | Matchup Report Stats

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Why the Broncos will cover the spread

Running back Phillip Lindsay is questionable and Melvin Gordon’s recent abilities are questionable. That leaves third-stringer Brett Rypien in charge of the offense, the ninth starting QB in five years for the Broncos. Expect them to hammer the ground game regardless as the Jets currently rank 31st in stopping the run.

Denver has not been a good road team, but they have found some ATS magic on short weeks over the years, rolling up 10-3 ATS mark in their last 13 games played on a Thursday. They visit a bad Jets team that has been home chalk just six times since December 2016 and won just twice, while going 1-5 ATS. Trust the Jets at your peril.

Why the Jets will cover the spread

As a home dog of three points or less, the Jets had won three in a row. As home chalk, the Jets have not fared very well. But in a battle of banged-up 0-3 teams, the Jets may be in better shape here. They catch a Broncos team that is just 6-21 SU in their last 27 games on the road.

And while the Jets stats are terrible and their record is pitiful, they have faced the second-toughest schedule so far. Perhaps a taste of cupcake can help them grab a victory here at home.

Broncos Jets pick

A lot of money hit the Jets and swung the line from -3 on Denver to -1.5 on the Jets. That’s a big move, which indicates a mix of recreational and pro betting money. It’s hard to back a Jets team that got hammered a week ago, but may be harder to back the Broncos.

On the total, six of the past seven meetings between these teams in New Jersey played. But we see this thing going UNDER 41, in keeping with Denver’s 17-5 UNDER run in their last 22 conference games. Call it 19-13 Jets.

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

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