NFL Week 6 Football Props: 49ers vs. Packers

Packers vs 49ers Pick, TNF Analysis

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-1-1 ATS in their past 8 games vs the Green Bay Packers, but they will be shorthanded this week, as injuries have derailed their roster.

Editor Note: With no more positive Covid test, this game is officially on.

The Packers will also be without some key players on Thursday Night, as Covid-19 has hit their running backs. Even with the Packers thin at RB, I think they bounce back on Sunday after a loss to the Vikings.

I like them to cover the -5.5 on Thursday Night Football, despite what our data colleague Trend Dummy suggests about fading the Packers here because of their inexplicably poor play each November.

And read my 49ers Packers prop bets article with my top three picks for this game.

Packers 49ers Odds: 49ers +5.5 Total 50 at BetRivers | Matchup Report

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Why the Packers can cover the spread 

The Packers got run over by Dalvin Cook on Sunday. Cook finished with 30 carries for 163 yards and 4 TDs, single handedly winning the game for the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers did his best to lead a comeback, but ultimately fell short 28-22 at home. 

The Packers are about to be without their top three RBs, which means they will have to rely heavily on Rodgers. The 49ers are below average at defending the pass, as they own the 17th ranked DVOA pass defense.

The 49ers allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 4 TDs, and allowed D.K Metcalf to have 12 catches for 161 yards and 2 TDs. Davante Adams should have a big game, and Rodgers tends to bounce back after a loss at Lambeau Field. 

The Packers defense has been awful against the run, and thankfully the 49ers are also banged up at RB. They will be going with rookie JaMycal Hasty who only had 29 yards on 11 carries last week. 

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The 49ers season took a massive hit last week. Not only did they lose the game 37-27, they lost their starting QB in Jimmy Garrapolo and star TE in George Kittle. Nick Mullens will make the start at QB for the 49ers. 

The 49ers need to get the ball out quick, and get the ball in space to their offensive weapons. The Packers struggled mightily with tackling last week. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins only had 1.7 air yards per completion last week and the Vikings offense scored 28 points. That shows the Packers struggle with quick passes, and RBs in space. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is tailored to beat a defense that cannot tackle. 

Packers 49ers pick

At -5.5, the Packers are a safe pick. In Rodgers only other loss this season, he bounced back and put up 4 passing TDs and 38 points. The 49ers are simply too banged up and coming off a short week to play Aaron Rodgers is a tough task. Take the Packers -5.5. 

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @eaglestalk_  He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com

Upcoming Games

Nov 26th, 12:30 PM

Houston -3 -110

Detroit +3 -110

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Nov 26th, 4:30 PM

Washington +2.5 -110

Dallas -2.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Carolina +3.5 -110

Minnesota -3.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Tennessee +3 -120

Indianapolis -3 -120

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Arizona -1.5 -110

New England +1.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Cleveland -6.5 -110

Jacksonville +6.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Miami -7 -120

NY Jets +7 -120

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Las Vegas -3 -110

Atlanta +3 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

NY Giants -6 -110

Cincinnati +6 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

LA Chargers +5.5 -110

Buffalo -5.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:15 PM

Baltimore +4.5 -110

Pittsburgh -4.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 4:05 PM

San Francisco +6.5 -110

LA Rams -6.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 4:05 PM

New Orleans -6 -110

Denver +6 -110

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Nov 29th, 4:25 PM

Kansas City -3.5 -110

Tampa Bay +3.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 8:20 PM

Chicago +8.5 -110

Green Bay -8.5 -110

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Nov 30th, 8:15 PM

Seattle -5 -110

Philadelphia +5 -110

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Dec 3rd, 8:20 PM

Dallas +7 -110

Baltimore -7 -110

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