Griffin Carroll: NFL Week 12 TD prop picks
As we prepare for Week 12 in the NFL, I’m returning with touchdown scorer props for the Sunday slate.
Instead of the five picks I’ve done the past few weeks, I’m doubling the group to 10. Consider the players I have below and at the odds these props have, hitting just two out of five could net you a profitable day.
Another option is to juice up some parlays by combining some of these picks for a potentially big payout.
No matter how you choose to navigate these TD spots, know that I feel good about all of them.
Evan Engram, TE, Giants: +290
The Eagles have allowed eight touchdowns to TEs this season, good for third-most on a per-game basis.
With Kyle Rudolph banged up and potentially set to miss this game, Engram figures to play nearly every snap once again in an advantageous matchup.
Engram saw five targets last week and has scored twice this season.
Boston Scott, RB Eagles: +310
We stay in this game, picking a known Giant-killer in Eagles running back Boston Scott.
Scott is expected to see an expanded role this week with Jordan Howard out, and there’s been something about the New York Giants that elicits a big game from Scott.
Scott has played the Giants four times in the past two years, scoring a combined six touchdowns in those games.
No team has been running more often than the Eagles the past four weeks, and Scott is going to get his opportunities in this backfield.
Laquon Treadwell, WR, Jaguars: +400
With Jamal Agnew out for the season, Treadwell now becomes the third Jaguars receiver. Only one team allows more touchdowns per game than the Falcons and Treadwell brings some tremendous value at +400.
Treadwell played 72 percent of the offensive snaps last week and saw three targets.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers: +175
Aiyuk has been turning it on of late, averaging 6.5 targets per game in his past four, with two touchdowns in that span.
Minnesota allows the fourth-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers, and Aiyuk offers more value than Deebo Samuel at these odds.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, Patriots: +210
Sticking with defenses that allow more touchdowns to the wide receiver position, we’ve got the Titans.
Tennessee gives up the sixth-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers, and Bourne has been leading New England’s pass-catchers in production lately.
Bourne has four or more targets in five straight games with just one touchdown to show for it. With Mac Jones continuing to show his comfortability in this offense, it’s easier to trust the Patriots’ receivers.
DJ Moore, WR, Panthers: +190
Moore is the top receiver on this Carolina team by a significant margin, and +190 is strong value for a WR1.
Moore scored last week in Cam Newton’s first week as a starter and draws a Dolphins team that allows the fifth-most passing touchdowns per game.
Noah Fant, TE, Broncos: +210
This one’s straightforward. Fant leads all Broncos pass-catchers in red zone looks and plays a Chargers defense that gives up the most TDs per game to the tight end position.
Fant is a key part of this offense and will be looking to find pay dirt in a pivotal divisional fight.
Rex Burkhead, RB, Texans: +275
You’re likely on the strategy now with these touchdown scorers: finding defenses that are particularly vulnerable to a certain position.
Well, in comes the New York Jets, who are by far the most generous defense to running back success.
The Jets allow 2.1 touchdowns per game to running backs, and I like Burkhead to capitalize.
Burkhead took 18 carries last week, a season-high, and had three looks in the red zone. He’s a part of this offense and brings some strong value at +275.
Ryan Griffin, TE, Jets: +380
With Tyler Kroft on IR, Griffin has been the Jets’ top tight end. Griffin has 13 targets in his past three games and faces a Texans team that has been generous to all positions, but tight ends in particular.
Only three teams allow more tight end touchdowns than Houston, and with Griffin’s usage, he’s worth a look.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Browns: +300
I love Peoples-Jones at +300 on “Sunday Night Football” in what is a crucial AFC North game for the Browns.
Peoples-Jones is WR2 in Cleveland since the release of Odell Beckham Jr. and will play a Baltimore defense that has been susceptible to deep passing plays all season.
Peoples-Jones has three touchdowns in his past three games and is the Browns vertical threat. At these odds, I’m loading up the Browns’ young pass-catcher and betting on an explosive play.
-Follow Griffin Carroll (@griffybets) and check out his work at bettingwithdata.com.