Griffin Carroll: Top Week 15 TD Prop Bets
What a crazy week of NFL news and rescheduling. The fluctuating schedule briefly delayed sportsbooks from posting betting lines, but we’re all set now.
On what is a shortened NFL Sunday slate of games, I’ve still found a few touchdown scorers I like.
Myles Gaskin: +160 at Caesars
My favorite bet of the day, and the odds variance between Caesars, DraftKings and FanDuel is significant. At FanDuel, Gaskin is -165, so this difference between sportsbooks is extremely noteworthy!
The pick here starts with targeting the Jets, who let up the most touchdowns per game to running backs. Their defense has been a steady constant in these articles, allowing 1.77 touchdowns per game to the RB position.
In comes Gaskin, back from the COVID-19 list. He has three or more red-zone looks in five consecutive games and should have his opportunities against the Jets.
With a steady role, solid odds and a weak opponent, this is a strong bet to get your NFL Sunday started off right.
James Robinson: +105 on DraftKings
Shed of Urban Meyer, and with Carlos Hyde out, Robinson is in a terrific spot to score a touchdown against a hapless Texans defense.
Houston allows the second-most rushing touchdowns per game to running backs (1.15), and Robinson should reestablish his role as the top back on this Jacksonville team.
Robinson leads the Jaguars in red-zone looks with 21 this season. He has seven touchdowns on the year and I like his chances to make it eight after Sunday.
James Conner: -125 at BetMGM
This isn’t the typical plus-odds I like to find when placing my touchdown bets, but this is strictly a mis-priced bet on BetMGM.
DraftKings and FanDuel both put Conner closer to -200 odds to find the end zone against the Lions, so this is another disparity worth targeting as we continue down running back TD props.
Conner has scored in seven straight games and has 16 on the season.
Meanwhile, Detroit allows running backs to score 1.7 touchdowns per game, including four last week to Denver runners.
With the clear red zone role on a team that should go up big against the Lions, these are odds I can’t ignore.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: +275 at BetMGM
Staying with this Lions-Cardinals game for a moment, I see some terrific value for St. Brown, who has quickly become one of Jared Goff’s favorite targets, seeing 12 targets in back-to-back weeks.
No clearer is that connection than in the red zone, where St. Brown has a target in consecutive games, and leads the group of WRs on the team with eight this season.
With T.J. Hockenson now out for the year and D’Andre Swift still on the shelf, there are a lot of targets still up for grabs.
In a game they’re likely to be trailing, the volume should be there for plenty of Goff throws. No team allows more touchdowns per game than Arizona.
CeeDee Lamb: +145 at FanDuel
One of the biggest gaps in quality of units this week is between the Dallas offense and New York Giants defense, so it’s a great game to load up a touchdown prop.
I’ve got my eyes on CeeDee Lamb, who has seen 23 targets in his past two games and is solidifying himself as the top receiver for Dak Prescott.
The Giants allow 1.23 touchdowns per game to wideouts, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
Lamb should have his chances, and is one of my favorites to score twice. Odds for that are currently +1000 at FanDuel.
James Washington: +480 at FanDuel
I’d like to end with a longshot, so we’ll feature the Steelers’ Washington.
I came to Washington for the matchup first. The Titans have been extremely generous to wide receiver production this season, and only two teams throw more often than Pittsburgh does.
The volume is going to be there for some big games from Steelers WRs. I think both Diontae Johnson (+140 at DK) and Chase Claypool (+240 at DK) are strong candidates to score, but the fun of touchdown props is locking in a longshot.
So, back to Washington. He has six red-zone targets this season, plays roughly 40 percent of the snaps and has seen 3.6 targets per game in his past five.
He has scored twice this season, including just last week, so I say we let him keep it rolling against a very soft Titans secondary.
–Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media
For more from Griffin Carroll, follow him on Twitter @griffybets.