Dec 27, 2020; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs the ball against the Atlanta Falcons in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Home Teams Favored in Conference Odds

Green Bay and Kansas City opened as favorites ahead of the Conference Championship weekend and one of those spreads could move around significantly this week.

While most experts believe Green Bay will settle around -4 at home to Tampa Bay in the NFC title game, the Kansas City vs Buffalo line could move off -3 depending on early-week medical reports on QB Patrick Mahomes.

Opening AFC Title Game Odds: KC -3, Total 53 | Matchup Report 

How will Mahomes affect KC-Buffalo spread?

With home-field advantage a questionable factor, the health of the league’s best player certainly weighs more heavily on the minds of oddsmakers and bettors. Mahomes suffered a concussion in KC’s 22-17 win over Cleveland, notably the ninth straight game where the Chiefs (-10) have failed to cover the spread.

Kansas City Head Coach Andy Reid sounded positive:

“He got hit in the back of the head and kind of knocked the wind out of him…he’s doing great right now, which is a real positive, passed all the deals that he needed to pass so we’ll see where it goes from here.”

But it wouldn’t be a surprise if Buffalo money starts coming in if Mahomes news is bleak during the week and Chad Henne goes under center. No offense to Henne, who made two legendary plays down the stretch to preserve the win against the Browns. That could push the number down a point or two.

Contrast that with early news that may indicate Mahomes is fine and this number could grow to six points in a heartbeat. Ditto the total, which was 53 in early betting at BetRivers and SugarHouse.

Opening NFC Title Game Odds: GB -3.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report 

Will Packers Conference Playoff Odds grow in the snow?

Fair question, as Green Bay could see cold snowy weather on Sunday – welcome news for Packers fans but not so much for warm-weather Tampa and their backers.

The weather might also threaten Green Bay’s current streak of eight straight OVERs in the month of January. Noteworthy that Tampa has played OVER 12 of their past 17 road games, regardless of the weather.

The total opened around 51 and this number cold be bet up or down later in the week dependent more on weather forecast than actually betting volumes As always, beware the Covid-19 news wire, which became one of the most important handicapping considerations in the NFL this season.

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

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