Oct 4, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) leaves the field with an injury as quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) talks to him in the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Texans vs Browns Pick, Betting Trends

The Houston Texans have struggled as an underdog, failing in their last seven tries in this role. They sat as 3-point road underdogs midweek at the Cleveland Browns for Sunday’s key Week 10 betting matchup.

The Texans got a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, while the Browns enjoyed their bye week. Houston’s only two wins this year have come against the Jags, and they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. 

There is a major mismatch looming here in the trenches that favors the host Browns, therefore our Texans Browns pick here is Cleveland -3. 

Houston vs Cleveland Odds: Browns -3, Total 49 at BetRivers | Matchup Report

Why the Browns can cover the spread 

The Cleveland Browns have won more than six games just three times since 2008. They are currently sitting at 5-3, after losing to the Las Vegas Raiders 16-6 in a game that was drastically affected by the weather.

They were on a bye in Week 9, which gave the team some much needed rest. Nick Chubb was activated from IR earlier this week, and looks like he will be good to go for Sunday. 

The duo of Chubb and Kareem Hunt could see a heavy workload. The Texans own the 28th ranked DVOA rush defense, so expect the Browns to pound the run game. Nonetheless, the biggest mismatch in this game will be the Browns defensive line against the Texans offensive line.

Watson has now been sacked in 17 straight games. The Texans are giving up 3 sacks per game, which is 26th in the league. Texans RT Tytus Howard is ranked 64th out 75 Tackles according to PFF, so I expect Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon to give Watson all he can handle. 

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans eeked out a 27-25 win against the Jaguars, as the Jags missed their two point conversion to tie the game in the last minute. The Texans are 2-7, however are 2-2 in their last 4 games.

The Texans need Watson to dominate. He has flown under the radar this season due to the Texans record, but he is quietly having a great season. He has thrown for more than 280 yards in 5 straight games, and will need to keep this up with starting RB David Johnson in concussion protocol. 

If you are looking at positive Houston trends (which colleague Trend Dummy does each week n his weekly deep data dive), the Texans enjoy a 7-1 ATS edge in recent meetings with Cleveland. Meanwhile the Browns are just 1-7 ATS in their  past eight conference games.

Texans Browns Pick

The Texans actual record reflects their ATS record. It’s tough to bet on a team that is 2-9 in their last 11 games ATS. The Browns are coming off a bye, and will get one of the best RBs in the league back from injury.

They need this win to stay alive in the chase for a wildcard spot, and I expect them to win this game comfortably. I love the Browns in this spot. 

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @ BrendenDeegNFP   He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com

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