Colts vs Bears Betting Pick, Trends

The Indianapolis Colts travel as 2.5-point favorites to Soldier Field to take on a surprising 3-0 Chicago Bears squad. This is the smallest spread of the day on Sunday, as oddsmakers appear conflicted about Indy’s six-game road losing skid and Chicago’s recent success as home underdogs.

The Bears are one of the most difficult teams to figure out this season.  They are 3-0, but have played three awful teams so far.  In their toughest matchup so far this season, I expect them to come up just short.

Colts Bears Spread: -2.5 Indianapolis Total 43 – Matchup Report Stats

Odds as of Friday courtesy of BetRivers Illinois | BetRivers Indiana

The Colts defense has been outstanding so far in 2020.  They are only allowing 225 yards per game so far, which ranks first in the league, with the next closest team allowing 290 YPG.  The main reason for this has been their pass defense, allowing just 132 YPG.  The Bears will have to move the ball on the ground, which they have had a decent amount of success doing so far.

The main strength of the Bears defense is their ferocious pass rush.  They have two excellent edge rushers in Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn, but also have Akiem Hicks generating pressure from the inside.

The Colts main strength on offense is their elite offensive line, so the matchup in the trenches should be even.  The Colts are down their No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers so I assume they will also have a run-based game plan.

Why the Bears will cover the spread

Chicago has been terrible overall lately ATS (just 4-11 in 15 games) but they have been a money maker as a home underdog, rolling to a 11-3-1 ATS record since 2016 in this position. Mitchell Trubisky was benched last week after only managing six points against a dreadful Falcons defense before getting benched.  In came the savior Nick Foles, who threw three touchdowns to complete the comeback.

Foles will get the start this week and if you have a feeling on how he will perform, please let me know.  Foles has been inconsistent throughout his career and it is impossible to predict which version we will see Sunday.

Unfortunately for the Bears, Tarik Cohen tore his ACL last week and is out for the season.  This will mean an increased workload for David Montgomery who has looked solid so far.  The loss of Cohen will be felt the most in the pass game, as Montgomery is not the receiver that Cohen is. Indy has lost so straight on the road and eight of 11 overall, so they are far from a lock.

Colts Bears Pick

Say to yourself out loud “the Chicago Bears are 4-0.” It just does not sound right whatsoever.  The Colts will be the best team the Bears have faced this season by quite a large margin and I expect the Bears to fall short in this one.  The spread is less than a field goal as of Friday, so I have no problem laying the points with the Colts.

For totals bettors, some opposing angles to consider – the UNDER is 10-2 Chicago’s last 12 home games while the OVER is 10-2 Indianapolis’ last 12 games played in Week 4.