Sep 22, 2019; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs against Baltimore Ravens outside linebacker Matt Judon  (99) during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs Ravens Pick, Monday Night Trends

When you have the Super Bowl favorites, the past two MVPs and positive betting streaks riding hot on both teams, you are looking for any small edge to help decide your bet.

When the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Baltimore Ravens in the Week 3 Monday Nighter, that small edge might be a recent weakness by the Ravens as home favorites.

The line has held steady at -3.5 all week at SugarHouse Sportsbook, but does it factor in home-field advantage which isn’t a regular full 3-point advantage? (See the Matchup report stats and analysis here)

Bet Rivers logo

Rated 5/5

100% Deposit Match Bonus up to $250

Respected and popular online sportsbook that made early entries into regulated states such as Illinois. It continues to seek licenses in new states as laws around betting sites open up. Easy deposits, excellent signup bonus and awesome football odds.

Rated 5/5

100% Match Bonus to $250 is Best in the Business!

SugarHouse was among the first to the US regulated betting market and backed by legitimate casino heavyweights in Rush Gaming. Trusted!

Why the Chiefs will cover the spread

Plenty of reasons here. The Chiefs have shown they can cover any point spread and can rally from any deficit. You don’t get a chance to bet the Chiefs as underdogs often and when you do, the Chiefs usually pay you out (10-2-1 ATS past 13 times). They are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and haven’t lost a game in September in 13 tries. In Week 3? 9-1 ATS. On Monday Nights? 8-2-1 ATS past 11.

But when strength meets strength, all these positive trends can be nullified. The concern for Ravens backers is this – they are just 4-11 ATS past 15 as home favorites, a pattern KC can exploit here with their terrifying offense.

Why the Ravens will cover the spread

Almost everything written about Kansas City’s power and recent history of covering point spreads also applies to the Ravens. They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played on a Monday and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.

Lamar Jackson is perfectly capable of taking this game over and refusing to lose. He is at home, but is the home-field advantage real during Covid-19?

Chiefs Ravens Pick

This is a game where last possession can win. Depending on how the score plays out up until that deciding moment, a last score could be looking at a field goal to win (which doesn’t cover -3 for the Ravens), four points or seven points (which would cover -3.5 points).

In what believe is a PK game, that gives the Chiefs a lot of options to cover. So, we would lean KC here, especially getting the half point at -3.5. Of note, in those 13 games where  the Chiefs were underdogs recently, the OVER is 10-3.

See hundreds of Monday Night prop bets and pocket a $250 welcome bonus when you check out SugarHouse or BetRivers before kickoff.

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

Upcoming Games

Oct 25th, 1:00 PM

Carolina +7 +100

New Orleans -7 +100

@

Oct 25th, 1:00 PM

Green Bay -3.5 -110

Houston +3.5 -110

@

Oct 25th, 1:00 PM

Buffalo -10 -110

NY Jets +10 -110

@

Oct 25th, 1:00 PM

Detroit +2 -110

Atlanta -2 -110

@

Oct 25th, 1:00 PM

Cleveland -3 +100

Cincinnati +3 +100

@

Oct 25th, 1:00 PM

Dallas +1 -110

Washington -1 -110

@

Oct 25th, 1:00 PM

Pittsburgh +1.5 -110

Tennessee -1.5 -110

@

Oct 25th, 4:05 PM

Tampa Bay -4.5 -110

Las Vegas +4.5 -110

@

Oct 25th, 4:25 PM

Kansas City -7.5 -110

Denver +7.5 -110

@

Oct 25th, 4:25 PM

San Francisco +3 -110

New England -3 -110

@

Oct 25th, 4:25 PM

Jacksonville +7.5 -110

LA Chargers -7.5 -110

@

Oct 25th, 8:20 PM

Seattle -3.5 -120

Arizona +3.5 -120

@

Oct 26th, 8:15 PM

Chicago +6 -110

LA Rams -6 -110

@

Oct 29th, 8:20 PM

Atlanta +2.5 -115

Carolina -2.5 -115

@

Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

Pittsburgh +5 -110

Baltimore -5 -110

@

Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

Minnesota +7 -110

Green Bay -7 -110

@

Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

NY Jets +21 -110

Kansas City -21 -110

@

Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis -3 -125

Detroit +3 -125

@

Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

Tennessee -4 -110

Cincinnati +4 -110

@

Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

Las Vegas +3 -115

Cleveland -3 -115

@

Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

New England +2.5 -110

Buffalo -2.5 -110

@

Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

LA Rams -3.5 -105

Miami +3.5 -105

@

Nov 1st, 4:05 PM

LA Chargers -1 -105

Denver +1 -105

@

Nov 1st, 4:25 PM

San Francisco +4.5 -110

Seattle -4.5 -110

@

Nov 1st, 4:25 PM

New Orleans -3 -105

Chicago +3 -105

@

Nov 1st, 8:20 PM

Dallas +3.5 -110

Philadelphia -3.5 -110

@