Chiefs Ravens Pick, Monday Night Trends

When you have the Super Bowl favorites, the past two MVPs and positive betting streaks riding hot on both teams, you are looking for any small edge to help decide your bet.

When the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Baltimore Ravens in the Week 3 Monday Nighter, that small edge might be a recent weakness by the Ravens as home favorites.

The line has held steady at -3.5 all week at SugarHouse Sportsbook, but does it factor in home-field advantage which isn’t a regular full 3-point advantage? (See the Matchup report stats and analysis here)

Plenty of reasons here. The Chiefs have shown they can cover any point spread and can rally from any deficit. You don’t get a chance to bet the Chiefs as underdogs often and when you do, the Chiefs usually pay you out (10-2-1 ATS past 13 times). They are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and haven’t lost a game in September in 13 tries. In Week 3? 9-1 ATS. On Monday Nights? 8-2-1 ATS past 11.

But when strength meets strength, all these positive trends can be nullified. The concern for Ravens backers is this – they are just 4-11 ATS past 15 as home favorites, a pattern KC can exploit here with their terrifying offense.

Why the Ravens will cover the spread

Almost everything written about Kansas City’s power and recent history of covering point spreads also applies to the Ravens. They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played on a Monday and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.

Lamar Jackson is perfectly capable of taking this game over and refusing to lose. He is at home, but is the home-field advantage real during Covid-19?

Chiefs Ravens Pick

This is a game where last possession can win. Depending on how the score plays out up until that deciding moment, a last score could be looking at a field goal to win (which doesn’t cover -3 for the Ravens), four points or seven points (which would cover -3.5 points).

In what believe is a PK game, that gives the Chiefs a lot of options to cover. So, we would lean KC here, especially getting the half point at -3.5. Of note, in those 13 games where  the Chiefs were underdogs recently, the OVER is 10-3.

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