Oct 11, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is hit by Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Clelin Ferrell (96) while throwing during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs vs Bills Betting Analysis

The Kansas City Chiefs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games played on a Monday. But they didn’t win last week, absorbing a 40-32 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Chiefs will be visiting the 4-1 Buffalo Bills, who got their butts kicked on Tuesday night by the Tennessee Titans. The UNDER usually prevails when Buffalo is an underdog (11-1 past 12 times) but those trends go out the window when Patrick Mahomes comes to town. We see the defending champs rebounding to cover this 4-point spread.

[ See our Chiefs vs Bills prop bets for this Monday Nighter as well ]

Chiefs Bills Odds: KC -4.5 Total 57.5 at BetRivers | Matchup Report 

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Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs defense struggled in Week 5, as Derek Carr and the Raiders hung 40 points on them. The Chiefs defense was actually solid entering Week 5, so maybe last week was an outlier. Kansas City’s pass defense still ranks amongst the best, as they currently sit 2nd in the league.

The Bills defense struggled against the Titans last week, allowing Ryan Tannehill to throw for 3 TDs, and have a passer rating of 129.3. This should be a perfect opportunity for Mahomes to bounce back, as he had his worst game of the year last week. 

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills will be playing on six days rest, as their schedule has been flipped upside down due to Covid-19. Josh Allen had his worst game of the year last week, but will be getting some reinforcements this week.

Wide Receiver John Brown will start on Monday, and Allen will definitely be happy with that. Brown’s absence was noticeable, as his replacement Andre Roberts caused one of Allen’s two INTs. 

The Bills defense will need to bounce back on Monday, as they will be going against the reigning Super Bowl MVP in Mahomes. The defense will also have some reinforcements on Sunday, as Tre’Davious White will be back on Sunday. He is Buffalo’s best player on defense, and he alone is huge for a team that gave up 42 points to the Titans. 

Chiefs Bills pick

The Chiefs have not lost back to back games since last October, and I don’t expect that trend to end on Monday vs a Bills team that has lost 11 of its past 14 Monday Nighters. The Bills pass defense ranks 21st in the league, and will have a tough time against all the speed the Chiefs can throw at them. I like the Chiefs to win and cover the -4 in what should be the game of the week. 

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @ BrendenDeegNFP   He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com