Oct 5, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Sammy Watkins (14) is tackled by New England Patriots defensive back J.C. Jackson (27) during the third quarter of a NFL game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs Bills Props, Kelce, Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD prop betting has been a staple all season long and the AFC Championship Game will be no different. Kansas City hosts Buffalo and we have four top Chiefs Bills prop bets.

Check the analysis and reasoning of why Travis Kelce, Josh Allen and Dawson Knox are good bets to score Sunday. See also Gagnon’s betting preview with point spread prediction on the KC Buf matchup as well.

As always, see the best odds, bonus specials and other NFL betting options at BetRivers and SugarHouse.

Chiefs Bills Prop Bets

 

Josh Allen Anytime TD +120

In any other year, Josh Allen wins the MVP award. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes had slightly better seasons than Allen. All of that is out the window in the playoffs, and Allen will be looking to lead the Bills to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1993. 

Allen is going to have to use his legs in this game. The Chiefs finished the year with the 31st ranked DVOA rush defense and gave up the 2nd most rushing TDs to opposing quarterbacks. 

Travis Kelce 2+ TDs +300

This bet didn’t hit for me last week, but I’m coming right back to it. He scored one touchdown last week, and I fully expect him to find the end-zone twice on Sunday. 

The Bills struggle against tight ends. They gave up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, and not even two weeks ago, the Indianapolis Colts tight ends combined for 136 receiving yards and one touchdown. 

Sammy Watkins Anytime TD +300

Editor Note: Watkins questionable as of Sunday, check his status.

Now the odds on this one could drop significantly come game day, so get your bets in early. Watkins was limited at practice on Wednesday, but I fully expect him to start for the Chiefs on Sunday. 

When Watkins is in the lineup, he is heavily involved in the offense. Getting him at +300 is great value considering he is the second wide receiver across from Tyreek Hill. Also, keep in mind there is a revenge factor here. The Bills drafted Watkins 4th overall back in 2014. 

Dawson Knox Anytime TD +300

Dawson Knox at +300 is a sneaky good bet in this game. Knox played 79% of the snaps against the Ravens and scored a touchdown in the Bills’ first playoff game against the Colts. 

The Chiefs have surrendered four touchdowns to opposing tight ends in just their last five games. They gave up the 6th most fantasy points to tight ends this season. 

Cole Beasley UNDER 48.5 Receiving Yards

Beasley has been banged up the last few weeks, and it’s starting to show. He has been held under 49 receiving yards in two of his last three games. John Brown returning to the lineup has also altered Beasley’s production. 

Devin Singletary OVER 40.5 Rushing Yards

Last week the Bills’ were the first team in NFL history to only have one rushing attempt in the first half of a playoff game. That won’t happen on Sunday. Singletary should see 10-15 rushing attempts, which is plenty considering the total is only set at 40.5. 

Mecole Hardman Anytime TD +260

Sammy Watkins is currently listed as doubtful, so that Mecole Hardman would be my replacement pick. When Sammy missed the last game, Hardman filled in and played 69% of the offensive snaps. It’s also important to note that Hardman is also the kick and punt returner for the Chiefs.

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @ BrendenDeegNFP   He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com

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