Chiefs vs Broncos Pick, Odds, Trends, Analysis

At +10, this is currently the second biggest regular-season home underdog line for the Denver Broncos in the past 40 years. But who better to handle a double-digit read spread than the high-powered defending champs?

Denver is coming off a big upset win against the New England Patriots, but will be going against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. The Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills on Monday 26-17, and covered the 4.5 point spread. The Chiefs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games, and I like them to continue that trend against the Broncos.

Chiefs Broncos Odds: Broncos +10 Total 45.5 at BetRivers | Matchup Report 

The Chiefs ran all over the Bills on Monday, as rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a career high 161 yards rushing. The Bills sat back and dropped eight in coverage all game, so Andy Reid took advantage and decided to run the ball down their throats. I do think Buffalo had the right scheme to beat the Chiefs, they just did not execute it well. 

The Chiefs are going to win this game on the defensive side of the ball. Denver’s offense struggled mightily in their win against the Patriots, as Drew Lock had a below 50% completion percentage, and threw 2 INTs. The Chiefs defense has been stellar against the pass, as they have the 4th best DVOA pass defense in the NFL. The Chiefs will make this a tough game on Drew Lock, and force him into more turnovers. 

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver came away with an impressive win on Sunday, as they were set at 8-point underdogs right before kickoff. The Broncos defense played spectacular, as they were in Cam Newton’s face all game. 

Denver is going to have to rely heavily on the run game in this one. Phillip Lindsay had himself a day against the Patriots, rushing for 101 yards, and was the focal point of their offense. The Chiefs own the 27th ranked DVOA rush defense in the NFL, so Denver would be smart to establish the run game to help out Lock. 

Chiefs Broncos Pick

I don’t like this matchup at all for Denver. The Chiefs have kept Patrick Mahomes upright for the majority of the season, as they have given up the 3rd fewest sacks through Week 6. Denver won last week by getting after Cam Newton, and it will be a lot tougher to get after Mahomes. The Chiefs win big in this one.