Kansas City is a huge road favorite and everyone still thinks it’s a great bet. There are games every season when every stat, every trend, every piece of handicapping logic all point to the same conclusion.
When this happens, we always pause and question whether the oddsmaker is setting us up to fail.
That’s the football betting paranoia that sets in as the Chiefs visit the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday. The line is -8.5 for the defending champs, a huge road number which happens to be the biggest home underdog situation for the Chargers since 1998. They were +13.5 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos on Nov. 28, 1998, a game pitting Hall of Fame QB John Elway against non-Hall of Fame Craig Whelihan.
Chiefs Chargers Point Spread: -8.5 Chiefs, Total 50.5 as of Friday at BetRivers Sportsbook
Why Kansas City will cover the spread
We know the Chiefs are talented and defending champions and any point spread seems like one they can cover. And all the recent and historical trends seem to point to the same conclusion.
They are 11-1 SU in the past 12 meetings. They have won 12 straight games in September and 15-1 SU in their last 16 divisional games. They are riding a profitable 11-1 ATS run overall dating back to last season and they are even 6-0 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games visiting the Chargers.
Throw in the Chargers 2-8-1 ATS in 11 recent home games and the fact they are just 8-24 SU the past five seasons against AFC West rivals, and its hard to find a reason to back LA. However….