Rams vs Bills Pick, Betting Trends

In the only matchup of undefeated teams on Sunday, we have the Buffalo Bills at home as 1-point favorites vs the Los Angeles Rams.  Both teams are looking to establish themselves as Super Bowl contenders, and I fully expect a closely contested match that will go right down to the wire.

The Bills defense was missing their top two linebackers last week in Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, which allowed Miami to have some success moving the ball down the middle of the field.  Both players are expected to play this Sunday, and as long as they do, I expect the Bills to take care of business at home.

Rams Bills Line (as of Friday at BetRivers): -1, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

Maybe the most surprising early MVP candidate thus far is Josh Allen.  He has been nothing short of spectacular so far, throwing for a league high 727 yards through two weeks.  Allen and his newest weapon, Stefon Diggs, have brewed instant chemistry as Diggs has caught 16 of his 22 targets for 239 yards.

Diggs has a very tough matchup this week going against All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey.  The Rams corner pitched a shutout last weekend vs the Eagles so the Bills will probably have to look elsewhere to move the ball this weekend.

The good news is that the Bills have favorable matchups elsewhere on offense.  The Rams have allowed 128 yards per game on the ground so far this season and I fully expect the Bills to attack the Rams via the rush.  The Rams linebacking group had a major loss this season when Corey Littleton departed for Las Vegas and they did not adequately replace him.  Not only will Devin Singletary have room on the ground to run, but so will Allen.

Why the Rams will cover the spread

Last week Sean McVay had an excellent game plan prepared vs the Eagles.  He knew the weakness of the defense was the linebacking core, so he constantly attacked the middle of the field, which resulted in three touchdowns for Tyler Higbee.  I am sure that McVay saw Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki go for 130 yards vs the Bills defense last week.

As I mentioned earlier, the injury report will be very important for handicapping this game.  If the Bills get their top two linebackers back from injury, I expect them to be able to slow down the Rams.  However, if they are out, I expect McVay to have an excellent game plan prepared to exploit the Bills weaknesses.

The Rams run offense is ranked third in yards per game so far this year, but the Bills run defense is also ranked 3rd in yards per game allowed so I do not see an advantage either way here.

Rams Bills pick

I think this spread is exactly where it should be so there are probably better options on the card this weekend. However, as long as the linebackers of Buffalo play this weekend, I like them to cover the number so a small wager is not out of the question.