Dolphins Bills Pick: Buffalo Cruises over Miami

Miami Dolphins will head on the road to play the Buffalo Bills in a game with tons of playoff implications. The Dolphins could really use a win in this game, as they still have not clinched a playoff berth at 10-5.

If the Dolphins win, they are in. If they lose, the Colts could sneak in with a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens, Browns, Colts and Dolphins are all fighting for three playoff spots.

The Bills on the other hand have clinched at least the third seed in the AFC, and with a win they secure the 2nd seed. I think the Bills continue to roll in this game and knock the Dolphins out of the playoffs. 

Dolphins Bills Betting Pick, Odds: Buffalo -1.5, Total 44 at SugarHouse | Matchup Report 

What a season for the Buffalo Bills. They are sitting at 12-3, and have been the best story of the 2020 NFL season. The city of Buffalo announced on Wednesday that they will be allowed to host 6700 fans for their playoff games this season. 

The Bills offense ranks 5th in DVOA, and are 4th in the NFL in yards per game. Josh Allen has arguably been the best QB in the NFL not named Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. 

Last time these two teams met, the Bills were able to light up the Dolphins defense. Allen threw for 415 yards and 4 TDs in that game. The Dolphins offense has been very stagnant with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm. He is 31st out of 36 QBs in yards per attempt with 6.3. He has failed to eclipse 7 YPA in six of his eight starts this season. 

Why the Dolphins will cover the spread

No matter what happens in this game, the Dolphins organization deserves tons of praise for this season. Brian Flores and the coaching staff have done a tremendous job in leading this team to a 10-5 record. 

The Dolphins need to stick to their run game. Myles Gaskin is their best weapon on offense right now, and the Bills run defense is mediocre. They rank in the bottom half of rush defense DVOA, and their run defense is clearly the worst part of their team. Keeping the run game involved and not relying heavily on Tua to win the game will be important for the Dolphins offense. 

Dolphins Bills Betting Pick

I really want to hop on the Dolphins train and ride them to the playoffs, but I cannot trust their offense. Tua has failed to provide this offense with the juice it needs to win some playoff games, and all signs point to the Bills playing their starters at least in the first half of this game. I think the Dolphins will fall short of making the playoffs and lose this game by at least a touchdown.