Miami vs Jacksonville Pick, TNF prediction

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the Thursday night matchup with the Miami Dolphins as 2.5 point favorites, after covering ATS in their first two games. The Jaguars have been a pleasant surprise through two games, looking competitive and better than anyone predicted. I like Jacksonville to continue this in the all Florida Thursday night matchup. 

Matchup Report Stats | (See my trio of best prop bets for this game as well.)

Thursday Night opening line: Jaguars -2.5 (up to -3 by Tuesday), Total 47.5 at SugarHouse

Why Jacksonville will cover

Jacksonville lost a tough one at Tennessee last week. Gardner Minshew was forced to throw the ball 45 times, and the game turned into a shootout with the Jags losing 33-30. The Jags passing offense has been a bright spot, after many believed they would be tanking for Trevor Lawrence this season.

Minshew will be happy to see Miami come to town, as their secondary was torched last week. 

The Dolphins secondary struggled without Byron Jones, who left during the first possession of their game against the Bills. They gave up 417 yards over the air and it won’t get any easier with Minshew. 

For what its worth, more than 75% of the betting public at BetRivers was on the Jags as of Thursday, according to the PR team. The OVER was also being hit hard at over 70% of the wagers.

After a tough Week 1 for Ryan Fitzpatrick, he was able to bounce back in Week 2 against the Bills. He threw for 328 yards and 2 TDs, and put his team in position to win. TE Mike Gisecki has emerged as Fitzpatrick’s main target, and this looks like a perfect matchup for the third-year tight end. Last week, Tennessee’s TE, Jonnu Smith, lit up the Jaguars defense for 84 yards and two scores. 

The Dolphins also showed that Week 1 was an outlier and that they can stop the run in crucial situations. They held Buffalo’s top two running backs to under 100 yards combined, and will need another performance like that against the Jaguars. 

Miami Jacksonville Pick

I’m sticking with the hot hand and rolling with the Jaguars. They have covered in both games to start the season, and this looks like a favorable matchup. Some poor coaching decisions ultimately lost them that game against the Titans, otherwise they should be 2-0.

Miami could be in for a long night without their top corner in Byron Jones.