new england patriots home underdogs

Patriots Home Underdogs Domination

New England will be a home underdog of a TD or more this week and you think, ‘Golly, this never would have happened on Tom Brady’s watch.’

Well it did, twice – both times in 2001 when he was a rookie.

Baltimore will lay 7 points or more at the Patriots in Week 10 and it has been six years since the Patriots were a home underdog at all, let alone a big one. The last time, they were +3 at home to Denver Nov. 2, 2014 and crushed the Broncos 43-21.

It has only happened twice since 1993 that New England was a home dog of 7 or more. They were +8.5 to the Greatest Show on Turf Nov. 18. 2001 and lost 24-17. That was the same year the Patriots would get payback in the Super Bowl, upsetting the Rams as 14-point underdogs.

And back on Sept. 30, 2001, Peyton Manning’s Colts were favored 13 points here after Drew Brees went down with injury and a skinny young backup named Tom Brady stepped in for a shocking 44-13 win over Indianapolis. (Read the ESPN recap.)

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How Do Patriots Perform as Home Underdogs

Again, this is the Cam Newton (mini) Era, not the Brady Era. From Oct. 8, 2000 to present day, the Patriots have been home underdogs just 13 times. They have crushed the spread, going 11-2 ATS. And they didn’t stop with merely covering the spread – they won nine of those games SU (9-4 SU).

So in years past, bettors who faded the Patriots as home underdogs suffered the consequences at the betting window.

Consider they needed a mini-miracle to beat the New York Jets on Monday Night and now face Baltimore off a short week, this is a tough assignment.

The Ravens remain 9-1 on the weekly Super Bowl 55 futures update board and Ravens have won 10 straight road games and gone 11-2-2 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.

So while the New England Patriots home underdogs record is superb, that trend train may have left the station when Brady exited for Tampa Bay.

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

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