Patriots vs Bills Pick, Odds, Trends

The Buffalo Bills will play host to the New England Patriots for the first time since Tom Brady departed to Tampa Bay. The Bills will open as 3.5 point favorites over the Patriots on Sunday, which hasn’t happened often the past 20 years.

The Patriots have won 15 of their last 16 games in Buffalo, and have simply dominated this rivalry. The Patriots should continue their dominance over the Bills, and cover the 3.5 point spread here. They are 15-6 ATS is 21 games as underdogs, but let’s see if these new Patriots are as good as the old Patriots in a dog role.

Patriots Bills Odds: Buffalo -3.5 Total 42.5 at BetRivers | Matchup Report 

The Patriots are currently in uncharted territory, as losers of three in a row. The Patriots have not lost three in a row since 2002, and got blown out in Week 7 by the 49ers. 

The Patriots offense has completely stalled since Cam Newton went out with Covid-19 back in Week 4. Since he has returned, the offense has only put up 18 points in two games. I think that changes this week against a shaky Buffalo defense.

Buffalo owns the 21st ranked DVOA defense, and has particularly struggled against the run. The Patriots need to get their ground game going with Newton, and with their trio of RBs. 

The Patriots defense matches up well against the Bills offense. The Bills have feasted on weak pass defenses this year, and that won’t be the case in this matchup. The Patriots have done well against opposing QBs, causing 4 INTs in their last two games. The Patriots have struggled against the run, however the Bills own the 32nd DVOA rush offense. 

Why the Bills can cover the spread

After taking the league by storm in the first three weeks of the season, the Bills offense has hit a roadblock. They have only registered 51 points in their last three games, which is an average of 17 points per game. This accounts for the total dropping to 42.5 points as of midweek. (See NFL odds on every game.)

The Bills offense has to get their rushing attack going. The Patriots were torched by the run game last week, surrendering 197 yards on the ground to the 49ers. The Bills are getting rookie Zach Moss back and healthy, and he looked good in limited snaps last week. I am expecting a bigger role for the bruising RB in this game. 

Buffalo tends to win outright as favorites, going 19-4 SU in their past 23 games when laying points.

Patriots Bills pick

The Bills have gotten off to very slow starts this season, which means the Patriots can keep their rush attack active early and often. I think this game is settled by a field goal, so getting Bill Belichick and the Patriots as 3.5 point underdogs is something you shouldn’t pass up.