Dec 1, 2019; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Charles Omenihu (94) and New England Patriots running back James White (28) react during the game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Patriots Texans Pick, Betting Preview

Bill Belichick has gotten the best of the Houston Texans in recent years. The Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Houston, and are riding high after a big win on Sunday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Texans lost to the Cleveland Browns last week, and have yet to beat a team this season not named the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Patriots need a win to stay in the playoff race, and I think they get the win and cover the 2-point spread.

Patriots Texans Pick, Odds: Houston +2, Total 49 (midweek at BetRivers) | Matchup Report 

Why the Patriots can cover the spread 

The Patriots have won two in a row, and are right back in the playoff hunt. A big reason for the two game win streak has been the play of Cam Newton. He had 7 INTs and 1 fumble lost in his first seven games.

He did not turnover the ball once in his last two games, and generally looks a lot more comfortable in the pocket. 

The Texans run defense has been atrocious. They rank 32nd against the run, and give up 10 more yards a game than the 31st ranked Dallas Cowboys. The Patriots may have found a stud in Damian Harris, who is averaging more than 5 yards per carry in his last two games.

The only game Harris hasn’t averaged over 5 yards a carry was the only game he didn’t get 10 carries. He should dominate this game. 

The Texans run game has been virtually non-existent this season, as only the Chicago Bears average fewer rushing yards per game. The Patriots pass defense is starting to click, as they rank 10th in passing yards per game. 

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans kept it close last week against the Browns, but couldn’t finish the job off. They held Baker Mayfield to only 125 passing yards, and were able to get some pressure on Baker for the majority of the game. 

The Texans need Deshaun Watson to have a breakout game. In the Texans two wins this year, Watson has thrown for 640 yards and 5 TDs. The Patriots have struggled against the deep ball this season, so getting the Patriots defenders one on one with guys like Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks could cause some problems. 

Patriots Texans pick

The Texans have struggled as home underdogs. They are 2-8 SU and ATS in 10 recent games in this role. The Patriots need a win in this game to stay in playoff contention, and I think they get it done. The line has moved a point already as of Thursday, we take the Patriots -2. 

 

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @eaglestalk_  He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com

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