Patriots vs Chiefs Pick, Betting Analysis

*Editor Alert: The line has moved to -10.5 for Kansas City for Monday Night. This is the first time since Super Bowl 36 that the Patriots are double-digit underdogs. 

*Editor Alert: This game has been postponed due to Covid-19 and positive test for Patriots QB Cam Newton.

The Kansas City Chiefs look to bring the momentum from a big win on Monday Night Football, into this Week 4 showdown with the New England Patriots. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are now 10.5-point favorites after Newton’s Covid-19 positive.

And while the Brian Hoyer/Jarrett Stidham Patriots are not the Tom Brady Patriots, a word of caution. New England has been a double-digit underdog just three times since 2001. Super Bowl 36 (they won outright) and twice in 2001 vs the Indianapolis Colts (they won outright). So the last three times in this situation, they won SU.

That is a risk, regardless of how well KC is playing, in laying a big number on the Patriots. They have been a TD underdog just twice in the past decade, once without Tom Brady after Deflategate and once in a meaningless Week 17 game in 2010. And naturally, the Pats dominate spreads in this situation, covering six straight as dogs of 7 or more and 11-2 ATS dating to 1999 in this position.

Is it crazy to bet against Mahomes right now and lay the points against a team that historically wins as underdogs (17-6 ATS past 23 times)?

Patriots Chiefs Line: -10.5 KC Total 49.5 at BetRivers | Matchup Report

We know the Chiefs will score points, the question will be can Cam Newton keep pace?  Personally, I do not think he will be able to because of a key injury to the offensive line.  Stud center David Andrews has been placed on IR with a fractured finger.

The Patriots offense has been dominant on the ground so far, rushing for a whopping 178 yards per game, which is best in the league.  The reason that the Andrews injury is so important is because the Chiefs best defensive player, Chris Jones, lines up right over the center.  I think he may be able to single handedly wreck the Patriots run game by constantly getting into the backfield.

A trend to consider: New England has won 12 straight October games and is 25-2 SU in their last 27 games in October (20-6-1 ATS).

Why the Chiefs will cover the spread

What has made Bill Belichick the unquestioned best coach in the league over the last two decades has been his ability to eliminate the opposing team’s best offensive weapon.  We saw him hold Darren Waller to two catches for nine yards last week.  The issue is that the Chiefs are so loaded on offense, that Belichick cannot possibly eliminate all of their options.

The Chargers were able to limit the Chiefs because of Joey Bosa.  He was able to apply pressure without his team blitzing, but the Patriots do not have anywhere near Bosa’s caliber.  The Ravens tried to pressure Mahomes via the blitz last week, and we saw how that worked out.

The Chiefs offense torched a Ravens defense last week that is built very similarly to the Patriots unit.  Both defenses are built through their outstanding secondaries, but have weaker defensive lines.  I envision the Chiefs having no problem controlling the line of scrimmage, and once again putting up points.

Patriots Chiefs pick

With the way that the Chiefs offense is rolling right now, I do not think 7 points is a high enough spread.  I also think that the Patriots offense will struggle, so I like the under which is sitting at 53 points right now.  Once the Chiefs establish a substantial lead, they will run the ball and bleed the clock.

The Chiefs have won 12 straight SU, covered 8 in a row at home and is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at home despite laying big chalk.