Patriots Dolphins Pick, Odds, Trends, Preview

The last time these two teams met was back in Week 1, and boy have things changed. The Patriots ran all over the Dolphins in Week 1. Cam Newton had 75 yards on the ground including 2 TDs, and the Patriots had six different players with at least 20 yards rushing.

The Dolphins are now a completely different team. They are 7-2 in their last nine games, and are 10-3 ATS overall this season. This is my favorite bet of the week. Give me the Dolphins as favorites.

Patriots Dolphins Betting Pick, Odds: Miami -1.5, Total 41.5 | Matchup Report 

The Dolphins threw some swings at the Chiefs last week, intercepting Patrick Mahomes three times, and caused a 30 yard sack. The Chiefs were simply too good, and won 33-27. Tua Tagovailoa struggled in the 2nd half, but did finish with 2 TDs and 316 passing yards. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick was under center for the Dolphins in Week 1 against the Patriots, and the Dolphins have been a much better team with Tua at the helm. Tua threw his first INT of the season in his 6th start, and has been very accurate with his passes all season. 

The Patriots defense has been very up and down all year. They are 21st in DVOA, and have not seen Tua yet. This will be a revenge game for the Dolphins offense, who only scored 12 points in their first game against the Patriots.  

Why the Patriots will cover the spread

The Patriots needed a win to stay alive in the AFC playoff race, and got their butts kicked on Monday Night Football by the L.A Rams. Sean McVay outsmarted Bill Belichick, and Cam Newton played his worst game of the season. Good thing they will be playing a rookie QB this week. 

Bill Belichick feasts on rookie QBs. Our own Brad Gagnon points out just how dominant Bill has been against rookies. In the last three games against rookie QBs, the Patriots have outscored their opponent 118-17. 

Patriots Dolphins Betting Pick

The Dolphins will be looking for revenge in this game. They are a much better football team than the Patriots right now, and have a lot more on the line. The Patriots are all but eliminated from playoff contention. This spread is far too small. Give me the Dolphins in this one.