Patriots vs Jets Pick, NFL Betting Preview

The New England Patriots have dominated this matchup as of late, running up an 11-1 mark against the New York Jets in their last 12 games. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. And importantly for readers who disagree with me tonight, they are 7-1 ATS their past 8 games as double-digit road favorites.

This is definitely not the same Patriots teams of the past 20 years, as they are 2-5 and off to their worst start since 2002. The Jets are still searching for their first win of the season, and are 1-7 ATS through 8 games.

[ Jets Patriots Prop Bets – picks for Monday Night ]

The Patriots have done nothing recently for me to trust them to cover 10 points, even against the lowly Jets, so I’m taking the points in this Monday Night Football ‘showcase.’

Patriots Jets Pick, Odds: Jets +10, Total 42 | Bet Now! | Bet SugarHouse | Matchup Report 

There is not much to like about the Jets this season. They are 0-8, and are on a clear path to the 1st overall pick. The Jets will be without Sam Darnold tonight, so Joe Flacco will get his third start of the season. 

New England has struggled against the run. They own the 30th-ranked DVOA run defense in the league, which sets the Jets up nicely since Darnold is out. La’Mical Perine has emerged in the Jets backfield, and will most likely share carries with Frank Gore tonight.

It’s not the best RB duo in the league, but I think they can cause some damage against this Patriots run defense. 

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots have been one of the biggest disapointments of the season. They have lost four in a row, and are 26th in team efficiency overall. Cam Newton will get the start, and will look to bounce back after he fumbled with 30 seconds left which cost the Patriots the game in Week 8. 

Newton simply has to be better. If there was a team to bounce back against, it would be the Jets. They are 26th in defense efficiency, and have surrendered more than 30 points in five of their eight games this season. 

The Patriots defense has been able to force turnovers, and forcing a couple tonight will be key if they want to cover 10 points. They have forced three turnovers in their last two games, and Joe Flacco is definitely capable of a couple interceptions. 

Patriots Jets pick

The Jets have been awful, however the Patriots have done nothing to show they can cover 10 points. The Jets played the Bills tough in Week 7, and I can see a similar style game where they keep the game within a touchdown. We take the Jets and the points in this one.