Super Bowl 53 Odds: Updated for Week 15

Saints vs Bears Pick, Betting Analysis

The New Orleans Saints have been very reliable ATS on the road as of late, covering 8 of their last 9 games on the road, and are 5.5-point favorites heading to Soldier Field to play the Chicago Bears on Sunday.

Even with the Saints dominance on the road, betting against a 5-2 home team when they catching 5.5 points is a risky proposition. We like the Bears to hang tough here with their defense, and to keep this game within a field goal

Saints Bears Odds: New Orleans -5, Total 42.5 at BetRivers | Matchup Report

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Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears are sitting at 5-2, and 5.5-point underdogs at home. It’s clear Vegas and the media don’t respect the Bears, after a brutal loss on Monday Night against the L.A Rams.

The Bears were due for a loss after their 5-1 start, and I think they will bounce back just fine. The biggest issue has been the play at Quarterback, as Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky have both struggled for the Bears.

The Saints have allowed a passer rating of 111.6, which 30th in the league. What catches my eye is the Saints have also given up 7.7 yards per pass attempt, which can only benefit a struggling Bears offense.

Foles is only averaging 5.9 yards per attempt, so the Bears offense will be able to push the ball downfield more than they have this season. Watch out for 5th round rookie Darnell Mooney in this game, as he can absolutely fly. He’s getting more incorporated in the offense every week.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints are coming off a 27-24 win over the Carolina Panthers, and are sitting at 2nd place in the NFC South at 4-2.

A big reason the Saints have been rolling as of late is the play of QB Drew Brees. He leads the league in completion percentage, and has been able to manage injuries at the WR position. Even without Michael Thomas since Week 1, he is still playing at a high level.

The Saints are only giving up an average of 1.3 sacks per game, which is tied for 4th in the NFL. The Bears need a pass rush to be successful, so keeping Brees upright will alter what the Bears can do defensively.

We mentioned their 8-1 ATS road streak – that actually extends to 15-4 ATS over 19 games and they have also won seven straight Week 8 games if you believe in trends such as that.

Saints Bears Pick

I think these two teams are a lot closer than 5.5 points. Considering the Bears at home, 5.5 is just way too big of a spread. The Bears are 5-2 with a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bears deserve more respect, even after their loss on Monday Night.

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @ BrendenDeegNFP   He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com

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