Sep 13, 2020; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA;  Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) with the ball as Carolina Panthers safety Jeremy Chinn (21) defends in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Saints vs Raiders Pick, MNF Analysis

Seldom do Monday Night Football matchup trends favor one team in such lopsided fashion, but there is plenty of football betting caution to exercise before throwing your money on the New Orleans Saints at -5.5.

True, the Saints are in win-now mode and have been a lock recently to cover spreads on the road. And they have dominated the Raiders, who open their new Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas today.

Las Vegas has also been tough lately as an underdog, as done very well on Monday Nights and will get the energy boost of playing in a new home, even if its not full. Add that element, subtract Michael Thomas and the equation could be a Raiders cover or even an SU upset.

Saints vs Raiders Line: -5.5, Total 48.5 at SugarHouse Sportsbook

Why the Saints will cover the spread

Drew Brees & Friends were good but not great in beating the Bucs in Week 1. The win had more to do with other players and a defense that had two INTs. Meanwhile, Las Vegas won a high-scoring road game in Carolina which highlighted some flaws.

New Orleans has won 11 straight SU vs AFC teams and rides a 12-4 ATS streak in their past 16 games overall. They have dominated the Raiders (7-2 ATS past 9 meetings) and have been profitable as a road win, covering seven in a road and going 14-3 ATS in their past 17 games as visitors.

Why the Raiders will cover the spread

Las Vegas showcased a dynamic offense, which will test the Saints here. Derek Carr, Henry Ruggs and Josh Jacobs provide an intimidating trio of talent. If they start quickly, it could snowball and this could be a high-scoring game that demolishes the total of 48.5 points.

The Raiders have been tough as a home underdog lately (home in Oakland, so we’ll see if the trend continues here in Vegas) winning five of eight SU when catching points at home and rolling up a 6-2 ATS mark in their past 8 as home dogs. If you believe in ‘prime time’ trends, then Vegas should have your attention with a 5-1 ATS in recent MNF games.

Saints Raiders pick

The spread was bet up from an open of -4.5 to -6 at some online sportsbooks. Early money can be a sign of ‘smart’ money, whereas late money can be the recreational bettors pounding the favorite close to kickoff.

That could indicate interest at a lower point spread and fear of a bigger number by laying too much on a motivated home underdog. New Orleans has been terrible in Week 2 games lately, falling to a 1-7 ATS mark but that is a pretty skimpy sample size on a pretty skimpy angle.

Still, we see upset potential here as the Saints get organized for the season-long Super Bowl push and the Raiders are in a good spot here to turn the upset. Our Saints Raiders pick is Raiders at +5.5, and if your sportsbook is offering +6, even better. This feels like a back-and-forth game decided by a field goal at the end.