Giants vs Cowboys Pick, Analysis

Dallas is 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games within the NFC East division. They could really use a win in this one, as they are 1-3 to start the season and are playing well below expectations. They are taking on a New York Giants team that is 0-4 and are struggling mightily to score points.

Dallas has yet to prove they should be 8.5 point favorites against anyone in the NFL, so I like the Giants and the points, despite the fact Dallas owns a 6-0 ATS run vs the G-Men and the fact New York has lost 12 straight as underdogs. 

Giants Cowboys Odds: -8.5 Dallas Total 54 at SugarHouse Sportsbook | Matchup Report

No team needs a win more in Week 5 than the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys defense is on a historic pace, and not in a good way. They are giving up 430 yards per game, which ranks 29th in the league, and their big name players on defense have been virtually invisible. 

The Defense desperately needs a good game, and they are playing the right team for that to happen. The Giants have a total of three touchdowns all season. To put that in perspective, undrafted Packers TE Robert Tonyan had 3 TDs alone on Monday Night. The Giants have no one on offense that should scare the Cowboys, and their front 7 can get after Daniel Jones. 

Why New York will cover the spread

The Giants offense is also on a historic pace, and not in a good way. The Giants have yet to score more than 20 points in a game this season, and Daniel Jones has looked like he’s regressed since last season. 

There isn’t a better defense to play if you’re looking to get your offense back on track. The Cowboys defense has been awful against the pass and run, so the Giants will be able to move the ball in this one. Devonta Freeman should have a bigger role than he did in Week 1.

The Giants defense has also been sneaky good against the run this year. They are only giving up 3.9 yards a carry, and the Cowboys are a different team when Ezekiel Elliott is struggling. Elliott is off to a rough start this season, and the Cowboys record reflects that. 

Bettors know that the Giants are terrible on the road but they make lots of money on the road. They are 14-3 ATS in their past 17 road games.

Giants Cowboys betting pick

I don’t care how bad the Giants are, there is no way Dallas should be 9.5 point favorites over anyone. I do like this to be a “get right” game for Dallas, but 9.5 is way too many points. Take the Giants and their impressive road trend at +8.5 in this one.